Economists reduced their growth projection: 3.5% in 2019

Signs of a slowdown in the economy after a positive start to the year with growth rates that even reached up to 5.3% in the second quarter are the ones that appeared towards the end of the year, with a last Imacec of 2.3%, the lowest level since June 2017.

And the forecast for next year is not the most optimistic. [19659003] In fact, and in accordance with the 2018 figures, the results of the last economic forecast survey further reduced the projected growth for 2019, from [3,89%] estimated at 3.8% in September to 3.5% in the measure of November.

According to the badysts consulted, the main cause would be a decrease in consumption.

"Chile's economic growth is strongly influenced by domestic consumption, and in this environment the behavior of the labor market (occupation and evolution of the real wage) is the variable that influences the dynamics of growth. upward trend in the unemployment rate and the decline in the nominal wage index to levels corresponding to the change in the CPI are a sign that partly explains the current slowdown, "said the director of the Center . of Regional Studies, Renato Segura.

And according to the 42 economists consulted, the growth projection for this year is 4%.

"In 2019, growth should be about 3, 5% less than expected at the beginning of this year because there are external risks that have been accentuated, mainly by emerging countries presenting problems, "estimated economist Ucs Andrés Ulloa.

This is the case of Turkey and Argentina, but other more important countries such as Italy or Brazil could also be contacted, including the l '. future after the elections is uncertain in economic terms, said Ulloa. "In addition, we must add the potential trade threat that has not yet been consolidated or completed. On the domestic front, although expectations of Chile are good, they are not as good as it was thought at the beginning of the government of Piñera among other things, as there have been no significant changes in tax legislation or the labor market and the pressure on continue to increase, thanks to the pension reform, which, without being immediate, is worrying for the economic environment. "

Consumers

Another indicator to take into account September Ipec realized that the consumer confidence of reached 46.1 points, which represented a drop of 0.9 point compared to the month of August. With this result, consumer confidence records its third consecutive decline and, with it, its lowest level since September 2017.