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COMODORO RIVADAVIA (ANALYSIS OF THE NEWS – EXCLUSIVITY OF ADNSUR) – The new increase in the prices of naphthas and diesel throughout the country, respectively between 5 and 7% generates the logical anxiety and claims of the consumer public, in a product that, even with a low margin of elasticity demand, saw its decrease its sale according to increases that accumulate in this way ] more than 70% so far this year . Why do they continue to increase if oil and the dollar fall in recent weeks?
1) Fuel prices accumulated until November 1, 65% increase until now this year, with 14 augmentations accumulated. During the same period, the price of crude oil increased by nearly 50% on the international market (160% in pesos) and the devaluation reached 100%. Thus, oil companies argue that fuel prices have risen above inflation (32% up to September), but below the dollar and a barrel of crude oil.
2) The prices of the country are compared, according to the operators. , against import prices : Argentina imports a quantity of diesel at certain times of the year when the demand increases (in field harvest period) and, to a lesser extent, also in naphtha. The value of these imports decreased in recent weeks as a result of the decline in the price of crude oil. According to a recent presentation by YPF on the US Stock Exchange, this gap with the import price has narrowed until it is closer to alignment, as was the case in April of this year. , when the devaluation increased to a rate that increases in the jets could no longer continue to cause more losses of their demand, because there was a shift of the highest quality naphtha to those of of lower octane number (from Premium quality to Super type). Thus, the current increases would still try to recover the losses caused by the distance from the import parity.
3) The composition of the cost of fuel affects the price of oil . According to YPF, this impact now accounts for 85% of the total, due to the devaluation of other costs measured in dollars (for example, wages paid in pesos for oil production and refining). It should be recalled that in 1998, when crude oil had dropped to $ 11 a barrel, the management of the same company had declared publicly that the oil was only 8% was explained . at that time, why did not lower prices at the pump, given the general decline in the price of oil. It should also be considered that these impacts may vary depending on the price of the contribution as well as the exchange rate. Therefore, at that time, the other costs had a higher impact (when the 1: 1 parity between the Argentine currency and the dollar prevailed, all the peso costs therefore had a significant impact on the final structure, the economy being virtually dollarized in the country).
The other prices that affect the general structure are biofuels because in the country the diesel must be mixed with a percentage of this type of products. A necessary debate, which has been proposed at the initiative of some national legislators, is to know the true cost structure for the development of fuels in the country.
If you compare today with the international price Argentina does not seem so retarded, although dollar variations and price differences across regions make it difficult to make a direct comparison. In the United States, the liter of naphtha on October 29 (according to the Global Petrol Price's specialist website) rose to 83 cents, while the value in Argentina rose to US $ 1.12 (39). , $ 82 the super naphtha). a dollar just above $ 36): more expensive than Paraguay ($ 1.03), but over Peru ($ 1.13), Brazil ($ 1.28), Chile (US $ 1.30) and Uruguay ($ 1.67).
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