How to coexist with the new Brazil?

By Carlos Pérez Llana
Professor of International Relations and International Analyst (Utdt and Universidad Siglo XXI). Note published in the newspaper Clarín

Monday, the future tsar of the Brazilian economy, Paulo Guedes, informed us that Mercosur and Argentina are not priorities. Many worried and some diplomats, not understanding what had happened, have downplayed these remarks. But on Tuesday, many fell into a state of perplexity: it was announced that President Jair Bolsonaro's first visit would be to Chile, then that he would travel to Washington, then to Israel. So, are not we on the screen of our main trading partner?
After the shock, which barely moderated the subsequent denial of Guedes and confirmed that the first international tour of Bolsonaro, the most logical way Conjectural exercise: what can be the format of international insertion of the new government? We would normally consult the platform, the statements of the candidate and his advisers; however, this exercise can not be performed due to lack of information.
Slogans are not desirable: "The Mercosur is armored", "Bolsonaro will not have the parliamentary majority needed to advance its proposals". Revealing attitudes: nothing has been understood about what happened in Brazil.
Certain foreign policy objectives of the new government are included in the economic discourse. It will be a priority to strengthen and protect the industrial sector that seeks to increase its productivity. Brazil is an integrated but closed economy, which is why it needs to open up in search of technologies and investments.
Brazil is a country in need of markets, which is why it will pursue its trade agreements without ignoring that the world is closing due to trade wars. It is a country that has always adopted multilateralism. He was one of the principal founders of the "Onusian" system, an eternal candidate for the Security Council and without hesitation sought to preside over international organizations.
Finally, in Latin America, Brazilian diplomacy has always tried to appeal to regional organizations, particularly in South America. , appealing to the prestige of the construction of leadership. In this world, Itamaraty was the big operator. The government will probably try to move away from the abundant network of organizations. Bolsonaro in campaign talked about his retirement from the UN; this will not be the case, but the message will be valid.
In this context, references to Mercosur are explained. Taking advantage of the institutional paralysis, the toxic presence of Venezuela and seeking to break what his advisers call "the links" of an incomplete customs union, Bolsonaro will explore other models and seek new ideological partners. That's why you are looking at the Pacific, Chile and Colombia are on your agenda. In parallel, the anti-PT internal discourse will correspond externally to the harbadment of Chavez's populism. The exaggerated tolerance of the tandem Itamaraty / Lulismo towards Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela is a thing of the past. The inaugural presidential visit to Santiago is a recognition of the economic and ideological turn of Brazil.
The "plan of movement" of the future president allows us to identify other axes of his foreign policy. Objectively, "Bolsonarism" is part of a process of political change that adds to the new European law and trumpism. On a strange path, Brazil will return to the old alliance with Washington, cultivated for years by civil and military governments.
The political dimension of the relationship, which includes the security agenda, will surely be close, we will have to see what is happening on the economic agenda.
Yes, it is clear that Brazil and the United States. UU they are allied in the agro-commercial space, one of the pillars of Bolsonaro's domestic support. China is another problem that unites them. During the campaign, he adhered to the strategic vision that prevails in Washington, exposed in the recent Cold War speech, Vice President Mike Pence at the Hudson Institute. For this reason, when the Bolsonaro teams refer to the privatization plan, they exclude the presence of Chinese capital. Brazil avoids contradictions by taking advantage of the interstices of the global agenda: in a trade war with the United States. UU., China depends on Brazilian agribusiness.
The announced visit to Israel responds to the global strategic imperatives and is also a recognition for its internal allies, the Christian churches that, like the Americans, maintain excellent relations with Israel.
In other circumstances, Itamaraty reportedly opposed Bolsonaro's commitment to move the Brazilian embbady to Jerusalem, arguing that it had boosted South-South historical diplomacy and confronted Brazil to the Islamic world. As you know, the world today is a geography, but it is not a block.
A new convergence with Washington, to which we must add a campaign commitment: to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on the climate. It is also an example of convergence between foreign policy and the agriculture lobby, a militant anti-environmental historian concerned with land deforestation. It is worth noting a significant fact: in Congress, Jair Bolsonaro uses cross-cutting blocks composed of two strategic allies: reformist churches and the agro-industrial world. In the new Brazil, rearrangements will have to be observed. Itamaraty will lose his influence; the economic zone will acquire power and an enigma will emerge: the weight of the geopolitics managed by the army. Definitely, Argentina will be forced to reset its foreign policy. Nothing is the same anymore.