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WASHINGTON.- From here 2040, all countries of the world will increase probably their life expectancy. From here,
Spain
will dethrone
Japan
and will become the country with the highest life expectancy, at 85.8 years, while
US
will be the developed nation that will fall the most, according to
A new study from the Institute of Metrics and Health Assessment (IHME) of the University of Washington, published in the medical journal The Lancet.
Argentina
ranked 2016 in 65th out of 195 countries with a life expectancy of 76.7 years, will fall in 2040 to 76 °, with a life expectancy of 78.8 years. The study predicts that the country's growth would be 2.1 years, well below the world average, which has determined an increase of 4.4 years.
Life expectancy in Argentina could reach 6 years. , 3 years in the best health scenario or down to 0.8 years in the worst, according to the study. Specialists pointed out that ischemic heart disease and respiratory tract infections are currently the leading causes of premature death in the country, and that the disease will continue in the same way in 20 years.
L & # 39; investigation
The ranking of life expectancy of countries offers new information on the state of health of 195 countries. IHME researchers badyzed the project data
World burden of diseases 2016, to generate forecasts from 2017 to 2040.
To do this, they took into account the impacts of diseases such as diabetes, HIV and cancer, as well as risk factors. which include diet and smoking.
According to researchers, the success of the Spanish case is mainly due to the diet of the population.
The ranking of the 25 best
In the ranking of the top 25 countries, after Spain, Japan (with an expectation of 85.7 years); Singapore (85.4);
Switzerland
(85.2);
Portugal
(84.5);
Italy
(84.5);
Israel
(84.4);
France
(84.3); Luxembourg (84.1);
Australia
(84.1);
Sweden
(84); Iceland (84);
Finland
(84); Slovenia (83.9); Malta (83.9);
Austria
(83.9);
New Zealand
(83.8); Andorra (83.7);
Greece
(83.7); Norway (83.6); Holland (83.5);
South Korea
(83.5), Great Britain (83.3);
Ireland
(83.3), and
Germany
(83.2).
Japan, which for many years had the longest life expectancy on the planet, will lose first place in 2040 if current trends continue. Specialists predicted that Spain will be crowned with 85.8 average years as compared to 82.9 years in 2016, which would indicate an increase of 2.8 years of life in 24 years.
US.
The case of the United States is one of the most striking, since it is the developed countries that will present, according to the study's forecasts, a larger fall. It is estimated a decrease of 21 places in the ranking. The country, currently ranked 43rd in the world, ranks 64th.
According to research, life expectancy in the United States, 78.7 years, will increase slightly to 79.8 years, well below the world average. One reason for its slight increase could be attributed to deaths related to opioid seizures.
Other countries that are expected to record a sharp break in 2040 are Canada, which will rise from 17 to 27; Norway, from the 12th to the 20th; Taiwan, from 35 ° to 42 °; Belgium, from 21 ° to 28 °, and Holland, from 15 to 21 °.
The countries that will develop the most
Experts estimate that China will increase its life expectancy by 2040 and will rise from 68th to 39th place, far exceeding the United States. China will average 76.3 years to 81.9 years, an average increase of 5.6 years, well above the world average.
In addition, it is expected that other countries greatly increase their hopes for life, how
Syria
which in 2016 was ranked 137th and in 2040 it would reach 80th. Experts said the main reason for their increased life expectancy was due to the fact that the region would tend to stabilize after many years of civil war that left more than 350,000 dead.
Life in 2040 is that of Nigeria, which will move from position 157 to position 123; and Indonesia, from 117 ° to 100 °.
The poorest ranked countries
On the other hand, the country that occupies the lowest position, Lesotho, in southern Africa, is expected to have a life expectancy of only 57.3 years by 2040; followed by the Central African Republic (58.4); Zimbabwe (61.3) and Somalia (63.6). Moreover, the team of researchers warned that a resurgence of HIV could further reduce the life expectancy of these countries.
The report also concludes that global disparities in survival may persist if current trends are maintained. On the one hand, expected life expectancy in Singapore, Spain and Switzerland exceeds 85 years for both bades, and it is predicted that 59 countries, including China, will exceed life expectancy of 80 years by 2040. And, on the other hand, the Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia and Zimbabwe predict a life expectancy of less than 65 years of age here. 2040.
The different scenarios
The data from the study, which is constantly updated with research and statistics from all countries of the world, has made it possible to forecast not only life expectancy and health outcomes. health for 195 countries, but also worse scenarios.
The study indicates that, in the worst case scenario, nearly half of the nations may have a lower life expectancy. At best, nearly 50 countries could earn ten years or more in their lives.
In addition, there is expected to be a big change in the number of premature deaths from communicable and noncommunicable diseases and injuries, as well as a great potential for influencing health. of the fight against high blood pressure, obesity, tobacco, alcohol and air pollution.
Diseases of the future
The report predicts a significant increase in the number of deaths due to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic renal failure and lung cancer, as well as that the aggravation of health problems related to Obesity.
However, Dr. Kyle Foreman, director of data science at IHME and lead author of the study, noted that the future of health in the world does not occur. is not pre-established and that there is a wide range of plausible trajectories. "But if we see significant progress or stagnation, it depends on how health systems address the health and wellness factors," he said.
According to Foreman, the five major drivers of health explain most health problems. The future pathway of premature mortality is high blood pressure, high body mbad index, hyperglycemia, tobacco consumption and alcohol. Air pollution ranks sixth.
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