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Does North Korea undermine the spirit of the Singapore summit with the United States?
Some reports in the American press indicate that North Korea continues to advance in its weapons program, despite its stated commitment to denuclearization, which has put in place doubts the sincerity of its participation in negotiations with Washington
These recent reports, based on allegations of leakage from US intelligence agencies, suggest that Pyongyang continues to improve its enclaves of enrichment. 39, uranium, among other activities.
But what's going on?
Up to now, the American press has said the following:
– North Korea is modernizing the Yongbyon plant, its only official facility for enrichment d & # 39; uranium.
– It is progressing in this area on two or more sites. etos, with the exception of Yongbyon
– Pyongyang continues to build more ballistic missile launchers
– It has also expanded its production of solid fuel missiles, which are easier to transport and launch.
] How reliable is this information? Although they are not official statements, they are considered accurate by respected specialists in matters related to North Korea .
This news is based on various unidentified sources of the American intelligence community. Satellite image study of the Yongbyon site conducted by the group of experts working at 38 North, a publication of badysis and web-based research North Korea .
– How serious is the situation? –
"None of these activities violates the agreements reached at the Singapore summit between US President Donald Trump and the leader of North Korea Kim Jong-un," says Vipin Narang, professor of political science and Mbadachusetts Institute of Technology Nuclear Proliferation Specialist
In the closing speech of the meeting, Pyongyang only pledged to work for the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, which he sees as a process Several Steps
The details of the same thing still have to be agreed by both parties.
"This would never be unilateral and immediate, so Kim Jong-un is free to continue operating in existing facilities," says Narang
However, reports that North Korea is still its nuclear activities are seen as an element that undermines the spirit of the summit and casts doubt on Pyongyang's sincere intention regarding denuclearization
"The general picture is that the nuclear program North Korea goes from the front as Kim Jong-un said in his January speech, when he urged to maintain the production of nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles, "says Ankit Panda, editor of The Diplomat magazine
– What is the biggest revelation? –
Solid fuel rockets are easy to transport and therefore represent a breakthrough for Pyongyang. North Korea with the ability to fire missiles from places that can be quickly established without being detected by South Korea or the United States.
Now, the biggest revelation is related to secret factories enriching uranium. Up to here, Pyongyang had only acknowledged that he had one: Yongbyon
There was long suspicion that there were more secret facilities. An exclusive report from the US NBC network, which quoted US intelligence sources, confirmed and named one of these places and states that there is at least one other.
"You can imagine a strategy of North Korea ] for which, without disclosing all its facilities, it proposes to close some of the known sites to obtain the lifting of sanctions against them," says Narang .
"At the same time, they are smuggling into their secret sites",
– Why are these revelations happening now? –
It is likely that US intelligence agencies have long been aware of the information that is currently leaking. It is also plausible that Trump was informed in the preparations for the Singapore summit.
But why is he running away from the press?
"The large number of leaks on nuclear activity gives the impression of," says Andray Abrahamian, a researcher specializing in issues relating to the North Korea of 39, Asia Institute of Griffith University (Australia)
The experts believe that there are two reasons why the US intelligence community might have decided to disclose this information at the time
The first scenario would be to "counter the White House's rhetoric that this case is a mission accomplished," says Narang
so they could "limit Trump a little so that he can not proclaim successes that have not yet been achieved, "he said Abrahamian
" It is so that the community devoted to foreign policy is concerned and the pressure on Trump is increased for that. " it is not weak with the North Koreans. "[19659034ThesecondscenariowouldbethatitisinfactacoordinatedoperationbytheTrumpgovernmenttogainmoreabilitytoinfluencethenegotiationsByrevealingtheextentofUSintelligenceWashingtoncanputpressureonPyongyangtorecognizetheexistenceofitssecretoperationsandfacilities
"It has always been badumed that North Koreans reveal information on their sites and test this information.With the list that the US intelligence community has, you would immediately have an idea of whether they are negotiating good information. faith or not, "says Panda.
" Now that we have revealed what we know about secret plants to enrich uranium, we can see if North Koreans will decide to make them public or not, "adds he
– Is the pressure going to work? –
The big question that remains unanswered is whether, after the Singapore summit, this kind of pressure will really be able to lead Pyongyang in the desired direction
The wave of recent information on the maintenance of North Korea's military and nuclear efforts suggest that this country intends to maintain its nuclear capabilities and even continue to develop them
"It may be that Pyongyang calculates whatever he does. , and China abandoned its campaign of maximum pressure against North Korea and that the United States, in fact, can not maintain it without China, "warns Narang
" Kim Jong- one could just say I did what I had to do to end the maximum pressure campaign "and I think I could be right," he concludes.
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