[ad_1]
With official data confirming that Andrés Manuel López Obrador won the 2018 presidential election in Mexico, many in the country repeat the same question: what will happen after the candidate's victory identified on the left?
his first speech after the quick count was projected as the winner, López Obrador promised "profound changes"
In some cases, there is a concern related to the criticism against the politician that was intended to identify with controversial governments, others, especially in business circles, fear that AMLO, as a candidate, will fulfill some of its promises in economic matters
. speech that López Obrador used to repeat in his mbad events, announcing "a radical transformation" in Mexico, although this is also what he wants – and expects – a good apart from the voters who gave him the victory.
During his campaign, AMLO promised to "radically" transform Mexico. / Reuters Analysts agree, however, that the change promised by AMLO can hardly be realized.
And not because he pretends to forget his promises – López Obrador insisted he complies – but because the path the country is taking makes it difficult to specify some of his plans, at least in the short term . Local Congresses
In some cases, AMLO will need the support of the majority of Congress which is not the case according to official data.
And a good example is the structural reforms promulgated in the government of President Enrique Peña Nieto, which were enshrined in the Constitution.
The main reforms require the approval of the Federal Congress and local conventions. / Getty Images But, in this case, although the Chamber of Deputies must endorse the amendment, it also requires the approval of at least 17 local congresses to finalize it.
Currently, of the 32 states of the country, none is ruled by the parties that make up the Together We Make History coalition, which named López Obrador.
But the 27 remaining entities of the country remain in parties opposed to the coalition.
AMLO came to the presidency with the support of the National Movement for Regeneration (Brunette), and Labor (PT) and Social Encounters (PES) parties. / GetTY Some argue that there is no need support of the state legislatures, because it would be enough for a presidential initiative in the House of Representatives. deputies to suspend the implementation of the reforms.
It seems difficult that the AMLO campaign proposal will flourish.
An example is the eforma e ducativa Peña Niego government and that the candidate says that it will cancel, badysis badyst Eduardo Huchim to the BBC Mundo. [19659002] López Obrador argues that the legal change was, fundamentally, a matter of work and administrative because it focused on the evaluation of teachers as a requirement to maintain his contract.
And that is what will eventually be repealed, says the badyst. The rest of the education system would continue as before.
The Reforms
The fate of energy reform, which opened the door to the private sector in the exploitation of hydrocarbons, is one of the sources of more uncertainty in the circles d & # 39; business.
AMLO has announced that it will revise the operating agreements of the hydrocarbon deposits. / Getty For Huchim, AMLO "will have to look very carefully and a lot of responsibilities what should be done in this area."
"Energy reform in pragmatic terms has important bases"
In fact, in the last weeks of the campaign, López Obrador and his team argued that they would carefully examine the contracts awarded to exploit the oil deposits and that they would cancel those that are irregular.
But according to the National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH), the body responsible for awarding operating contracts in the fields is not so simple.
Up to now, more than 107 blocks have been delivered ] as is known in areas potentially producing crude oil or gas.
According to the Hydrocarbons Act, they can only be canceled for lack of investment, natural disasters caused by companies or abandonment of companies. ] ” clbad=”img img-responsive image-large”/> For AMLO, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is "very expensive and has few results." / Getty
The only authority that can terminate a contract is the CNH, which has its own board of directors and is considered independent of the government.
AMLO: Zero Surprise
Another controversial issue is how to handle renegotiation. of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
This issue has raised concerns in some media and between business groups about the candidate's speech, which has repeatedly stated that the agreement was "very costly and But that does not mean that a possible AMLO government is changing the country's pattern of trade opening which began in 1987 when it was incorporated in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)
The GATT is the antecedent of the current World Trade Organization (WTO), of which the country is a member. And the model is deepened when NAFTA came into effect in 1994.
Since then, Mexico has signed 15 similar trade agreements.
According to Gerardo Esquivel, economic adviser to López Obrador, the elected president "has not thought about changing Mexico's relations with the outside world".
AMLO "Talks to people" says Alfonso Romo. / Getty "Mexico is an open economy that made the decision many years ago and that has inserted itself into the global economy," says Esquivel at the BBC Mundo
. international would be costly for the country, so no proposal of this nature was considered in any way, "he adds.
Thus, fundamentally, the commercial path in the government of AMLO would be very similar to that of up to now, insist on their collaborators.
"Surprises of Andrés Manuel should not be expected ," says Alfonso Romo, one of the country's richest businessmen, at the BBC Mundo
Romo is the candidate's link with the business community. Indeed, López Obrador appointed him Chief of Staff
"From an economic point of view, he is conservative: he does not want a deficit he wants to drastically reduce excessive spending and increase public investment" , insists Romo
The Challenge of Violence
Beyond the economy, the other big problem is the insecurity of the war against and between cartels of the drug, which according to official data
C is the largest wave of violence since 1926, date of the beginning of the Cristero war.
And it is also a subject where there can hardly be any changes In the short term, the security specialist Alejandro Hope tells BBC Mundo
L & 39 Insecurity of the war against and between cartels is one of the great challenges of the elected president. / Getty For Hope, the problem of insecurity in the country is " structural, persistent" because it is mingled with an absence of authorities in the most violent regions of the country.
now the strategies to fight it have not worked, and according to the badyst what is known until now the leftist candidate does not offer much expectations
"López Obrador has always viewed the issue of insecurity as a by-product of social policy ", that is, programs to help the marginalized population.
It may be true, he adds, but a strategy based on this principle can take several years. offer results .
And the truth is that the candidate did not completely define his strategy against violence .
In his first speech as a winning candidate, AMLO announced that he would convene human rights activists, businessmen, religious leaders and specialists to design the plan to fight against insecurity
In his closing speech of the campaign, he said that he would take shape after the elections and that he had the intention of convene religious leaders, human rights activists and family members. of victims of violence among others
But the challenge is so great that even a successful management of López Obrador would not lead to "radical" change in the situation of violence.
"If the homicide rate was extremely high and we halved the homicide rate, at the end of the government, we would be at homicide rates similar to those of 2007. Says Hope.
We would have 100,000 homicides in the badennium, "he says.
Now you can receive notifications from BBC News World, download the new version of our app and turn it on so you do not miss out on our best content.
