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According to the OECD, a protectionist wave that pushed up tariffs at the height of the 1990s would have a very negative impact on the global economy: the OECD believes that there is 2060, the standard of living will be reduced by an average of 14% The impact would be more significant for emerging countries, where the decline in fares has been much more pronounced since the 1990s, said l & 39; Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
For the BRIICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa), the decline would be 18%. In a long-term prospective report released on Thursday (12.07.2018), the agency has badessed this decline in trade liberalization as an alternative hypothesis to its baseline scenario, precisely now that the position of US President Donald Trump fears drift of this type
The protectionist retreat could cost India up to 25% reduction in living standards compared to the benchmark if current trade policies were maintained until now. The percentage of losses would also be greater than 15% for Australia and China, and around 10% for Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, South Korea, New Zealand or Switzerland . For the United States, the decline would be between 6 and 7%, since its tariff levels were already relatively low in the 1990s.
The same effect explains that the decline in the euro area would be limited to 4, 5% In this case, the countries of the single currency, in addition, carry out a good part of their trade between them and depend less on foreign transactions. The OECD pointed out that these repercussions only take into account the effects derived from supply, in particular the slowdown in the improvement of the labor efficiency generated by the competition from imports or imports. lower technology transfers and weaker production specializations. In other words, they do not consider the negative consequences that could also come from demand, especially in terms of loss of confidence and investment.
The so-called "Club of Developed Countries" has endeavored to remember that research indicates that an increase in foreign trade by one point of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) provides, in the long run, per capita income growth of about 0.4%.
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