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As of this Sunday, attentive to the differences reported by the polls, there is no doubt that Jair Bolsonaro will be crowned as the most relevant representative of the region in this extreme way of understanding politics. and the power that has spread around the world. Media Europe and a large part of the United States will certainly celebrate the arrival of the new member of this dark club, which has invested nothing less than mastering the largest economy in Latin America. The extravagance of the character and provocative verbiage guarantee these supports. But it is also these arguments that caused a disturbing current transversal in the Brazilian and external political universe. Mexican writer Enrique Krauze recently compared the Bolsonaro climb to the September fire that destroyed the Natural History Museum of Brazil. This second fire will put an end to the historical character of the continent, he declared with resignation.
The most important point of the result of this Sunday will be, however, the translation that is made of the message of the polls. The right-wing leader's team would be wrong if they lost sight of the sense of punishment of the ruling clbad who holds this vow of anger; the way Brazil expresses its desire to "leave everything". A proper characterization of this event is important as it will allow us to understand that the election does not now resolve support for Bolsonaro in the event that his victory is confirmed. Be that as it may, we will see later how the deputy and former captain of the army consolidates these liquidations or liquidates them.
For the moment, the only thing clear is that most Brazilians have decided to react in this way to mistreatment the traditional leadership has made the income of the population, its morality, weary of abominable corruption and his security, weighed down by the figure of more than 60,000 deaths from crimes last year. Polls that have measured the right-wing electoral advance without fail have revealed that the level of discouragement of the population – less the most optimistic country in the world – is now around 80%.
This reference illustrates the density of punishment at the polls. There is also a warning against persistent trends in the region to badume the mbades as a crowd without criteria and immune from judicial denunciations against their leaders for the dismissal of the state. The PT's insistence that the investigation on Lava Jato is a conspiracy created to block Lula da Silva's political career is at the root of the popular fury that gave life to Bolsonaro. This characterization, more than any other factor, explains the relentless campaign of the former minister Fernando Haddad, who lacked a deep self-criticism of the party apparatus and, in particular, of the ex-president imprisoned. It is true that Lula did not let his enriched governments, it was during his administrations and those of his successor, Dilma Rousseff, that the biggest corruption scandal in the world was noticeable. Brazil's history has occurred. The last PT government put an end to the deepest recession since the beginning of the last century. This may surprise such a strategic failure, but the recognition of one's own failures is an absent exercise not only in Brazil.
Bolsonaro, with the second point of view. retour, moderates his speech on cultural aspects, in particular his homophobia and xenophobia, but does not retreat from the admiration he professes for the military dictatorship who ruled his country for two decades, or by other South American military regimes, especially that of Augusto Pinochet. These sounds and the claim of torture weigh on the backs of intellectuals and academics, including the ideological right, such as the one mentioned above, Krause, bitter criticism of populism. But he does not enter with the same concern as the Brazilian electorate willing to pay the high price for a historic slamming.
The right-wing leader synthesizes an exotic combination of intense nationalism and orthodox liberalism. The number of parts of this mixture contained in the mixture is not very clear. Unpredictably, he recently contradicted his future Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, when he said he would stop privatization of important public badets to escape Chinese greed. Then his advisers shut him up. They reminded him that Beijing is one of the biggest investors in the economy of the South American giant and an indispensable partner of Brazil. But if the favorite candidate is observed in more fundamental terms, his message in favor of authoritarian leadership, weak institutions or doubts and the place of the individual moved, we get the format that , in Europe, is synthesized as neofascism. Populism and this absolutist deformation have always gone hand in hand, regardless of the ideological clothing chosen by its protagonists.
We will see in Brazil that, if investigations take for granted, it will also be the instrumentation of a division deep social change like the one Donald Trump encourages in the United States. This type of political architecture builds its identity in confrontation with another different and crouching. The Europeans who make up this burgeoning obscurantist international have identified this opposite in immigration and, in general, among foreigners. Also there, Trump plays his agenda. Bolsonaro tackles this topic partially when he addresses the issue of the Venezuelan exodus, but his mantra is "the left" as a generalist concept of evil, a contradiction that he poses in black and white terms of the cold war.
This utility crack is already beginning to emerge in Brazil from the extremes. The writer Luiz Puntel has just noticed with one of his children's books. A school in Rio de Janeiro abruptly withdrew the text entitled "Children Without Homeland", following complaints from parents who called it communist propaganda. The book is just a fiction about a family forced into exile during the military dictatorship. Puntel told the BBC that his story was read in schools nationwide since 1981, while there was still four years to end the military regime.
This Sunday election has an inevitable link with the legislature. Americans of November 6 . This election exercise reached the peak of a referendum for the Trump leadership in which the US President controls both Houses of Congress is played. But it's also a test for his way of understanding things, it's the record that most admires the Brazilian favorite. A reversal of the internal power of the most controversial American president in history would involve a blow to his international allies and imitators and, in the best case, a retreat from the protectionist and unilateralist fervor raging in the world. This is why China observes this appointment with only one attention.
In May, the European Parliament is also put to the vote and the views of the Old Continent point to the United States. so that the mid-term competition can influence this commitment. The ultra leaders who have spread to EU countries are betting that their people will govern the community center. That's why Italy keeps up its challenge with a budget that violates all the rules of the Union. A possible Republican victory would strengthen the wind of this turning point which seeks to bury the cosmopolitan ideal of the European construction. Bolsonaro, the main advance in our countries of these trends, will double his victory on November 6 when he will accede to the presidency this Sunday. Trump's chief electoral adviser has long since landed in the Brazilian camp.
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