The caravan that "infuriates" Trump (and how he uses it politically in his favor)

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The caravan advances and Donald Trump's tweets multiply.

Since last weekend, thousands of people from Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala have been trying to reach the southern United States, which has awakened the President's anti-immigrant rhetoric the United States.

In a chain of messages on Twitter, Trump threatened Thursday to close the border with Mexico and send the National Guard to keep it if the outgoing government of Enrique Peña Nieto failed to close the border. step to illegal immigrants.

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"I must, in the strongest terms, ask Mexico to put an end to this attack.If he can not do it, I will call the US military and close our border. southern, "he wrote. The president had threatened to cut the millions of dollars that his government sent to Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala if these governments could not stop the caravan from continuing.

And a few hours later, he thanked Mexico for retransmitting a message about the deployment of the Mexican Federal Police on the southern border.

This is not the first time that Trump threatens to eliminate aid to Central America or resume his anti-immigrant speech as a result of the approach of a group. large group of immigrants to the southern border.

Already in May, another group was the pretext to solve the problem of the wall located on the border with Mexico – one of their election promises -, launches their contested policy of "zero tolerance". "and accuse the Democratic Party of promoting" open borders. "

"I see how the Democratic Party allows (because He wants open borders and weak laws existing) the aggression of our country by part of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, whose leaders do little to stop this great flow of people , INCLUDING NUMEROUS CRIMINALS ", he tweeted Thursday

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However, under the current circumstances in the United States, some experts believe that the caravan is approaching a decisive moment for the policy of the country and that, therefore, the speech of Trump is now over

" Now, 19 days before the mid-term elections, the risks are greater and their rhetoric is more acute, "said Anthony Zurcher, US badyst in the United States. BBC.

Elections in sight

On November 6, the United States will go to the polls for its mid-term elections, where a large portion of the Congress and state governments will be renewed.

Analysts and academics believe the vote will be decisive, as it can change the current structure of both houses of parliament, now dominated by the ruling Republican party.

A recent poll of the United States Pew Research Center indicated that 77% of Democrats were more enthusiastic than usual with regard to voting in these elections, compared to 59% of Republican voters.

According to political scientist Melissa Michelson, a professor at Menlo College in California, telling the BBC Mundo that one of the decisive elements of this election is not who votes, but how many voters vote.

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"In the mid-term elections, it is estimated that more than half of the people entitled to vote did not not." It's not so much that we are trying to change the voters of the political option. For Democrats to vote for Republicans or vice versa, that's something that could happen, but it would not be representative, what matters is that people who identify with a party vote, "he says.

In this sense, the academic believes that a The fundamental factor is that politicians give the reasons to those who are not supposed to go to the polls, do so.

"I would say that the present messages of the president are mainly directed to this one. electoral base, which is trying to mobilize because of the fear engendered by illegal immigration, "he said.

A mechanism of distraction?

A recent survey of Fox News, a conservative media that Trump supports, revealed that voters likely to participate in the November elections are more interested in issues such as health insurance than immigration or border security.

"The President, with his tweets, trying to change that. If he can not, it will be an election that will take place on uncomfortable ground for Republicans, "said Zurcher.

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Michelson agrees that the caravan issue is trying to divert attention to a terrain on which Trump's party acts as a jealous guardian.

But in his opinion, the question may also constitute a "distraction mechanism". Policy.

"Voting intentions of the Republican Party have been affected in recent months by events such as the election of Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court, the investigation into Russia's interference in the elections of 2016 or now by relations with the Saudi press and the disappearance of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi ", he explains.

"The caravan is approaching the United States at a decisive moment, it is diverting more and more attention and raising fears again about illegal immigration. May not have intended to vote, "he says.

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However, Nicholas Valentino, a professor at the University of Michigan's Political Studies Center considers that Trump's strategy with regard to the current caravan more invokes the "anger and outrage" of the electorate that fear.

"Conventional wisdom dictates that this problem works in favor of Trump by fueling the public's anxiety and fear of immigrants who commit crimes and bring drugs in the United States, or harming our economy, "he told BBC Mundo.

However, the expert's comments indicate that the studies he has conducted suggest that fear of the economic or criminal consequences of immigration does not really lead to support for Trump's policies.

"On the contrary, the evidence suggests that many Americans are very angry at immigrants because of ethnic animosities and the perception that these newcomers are gaining unfair advantages," he said. he declares.

"That's the reason the US government's policy is punitive instead of trying to actually solve the problems that push Central Americans and South Americans to flee their country to come to the States. In search of asylum, "he said.

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