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The caravan advances and Donald Trump's tweets multiply.
Since last weekend, thousands of people from Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala have been trying to reach the southern United States, which has awakened the anti-immigrant rhetoric of the president United States
In a chain of messages via Twitter, Trump threatened Thursday to close the border with Mexico and send the National Guard to monitor her if the outgoing government Enrique Peña Nieto fails to block illegal immigrants.
"I must, in the strongest terms, ask Mexico to put an end to this attack and, if not, I will call on the US Army." Previously, the president had threatened to cut off million dollars that his government sent to Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala if these governments could not prevent the caravan from crashing.
He continued his march.
And a few hours later, he thanked the Mexico subtracting a message on the deployment of Mexican federal police officers to the southern border.
This is not the first time that Trump threatens to eliminate aid to the United States. Central America: He tackles his anti-immigrant discourse following the approach of a large group of immigrants to the southern border
Already in May, another group was the pretext to solve the problem. problem of the wall on the border with Mexico – one of campaign promises, begins its disputed policy of "zero tolerance" and accuses the Democratic Party of promoting "open borders".
I look at the Democratic Party led (because it wants open borders and weak existing laws) attacked Our country by Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, whose leaders are doing nothing to prevent this important flow of people, including many criminals, to enter Mexico in the United States …
– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) Oct 18, 2018
"I see how the Democratic Party empowers (because it wants open borders and weak laws in effect) the onslaught of our country by Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, whose leaders do little to stop this great flow of people, INCLUDING MANY CRIMINALS ", he tweeted Thursday.
However, under the current circumstances in the United States, some experts consider that the caravan is approaching a decisive moment for the country's politics and that, consequently, the speech of Trump is now stronger – and with bigger implications – than last May.
"Now, 19 days after Anthony Zurcher, American badyst at the BBC, says Anthony Zurcher.
Sight Elections
On November 6, the United States will be present in mid-term elections, the risks are higher and the rhetoric is more acute. " polls for its mid-term elections, where much of Congress and state governments will be renewed.
Analysts and academics believe that the vote will be decisive because it will change the current structure of both chambers of parliament, dominated. Now by the Republican Party in Power
A recent poll of the Pew Research Center in the United States revealed that 77% Democrats were more enthusiastic than usual about voting in these elections , compared to 59% of Republican voters.
And, according to political scientist Melissa Michelson, a professor at Menlo College in California, tells BBC World one of the decisive elements of these elections is not who you vote for, but how many Voters vote.
"In the mid-term elections, it is estimated that more than half of the people in power vote do not . It is not so much a question of trying to change Voters of Political Option.To Democrats vote for Republicans or vice versa.This is something that can happen but it would not be representative.What matters is that people who identify themselves to one party vote. "
In this sense, the academic believes that a fundamental factor is therefore that politicians give the reasons why they are not expected. in elections, do it.
"I would say then that the president's current messages are primarily aimed at this constituency, which he's trying to mobilize because of the fear engendered by illegal immigration," he says.
A distraction mechanism?
A recent poll by Fox News, a conservative media outlet that supports Trump, revealed that voters likely to participate in the November election are more interested in issues such as health insurance than the one they are running. immigration or border security.
"The president, with his tweets, is trying to change that.If he can not, it will be a choice that will be fought on hard ground for the Republicans," Zurcher said.
Michelson agrees that the caravan theme is attempting to divert attention to an area in which Trump's party is serving Jalous Guardian.
But, in his opinion, the question could also constitute a political "distraction mechanism".
"Voting intentions of the Republican Party have been affected in recent months by events such as the election of Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court, the investigation into Russia's interference in the 2016 elections or now on relations with Saudi Arabia and the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, "he said.
"The caravan then approaches the United States in a decisive moment, diverting attention to it and raising again the fears of illegal immigration, can be used to mobilize this electoral base who may not have intended to vote ", ñala.
However, Nicholas Valentino, a professor at the Center for Political Studies at the University of Michigan, believes that Trump's strategy with regard to the current caravan evokes more "anger and indignation. "from the electorate that fear. 19659002] "It is generally accepted that this problem works in Trump's favor by fueling the public's anxiety and fear of immigrants who commit crimes and bring drugs to the United States. United, or that harms our economy, "he told BBC Mundo.
However, the expert comments that the studies he has conducted suggest that the fear of the economic or criminal consequences of immigration does not really support the policies of Trump.
] "On the contrary, the evidence suggests that many Americans are very angry at immigrants because of ethnic animosities and the perception that these newcomers are getting unfair advantages," he said.
the reason why US government policies are punitive instead of trying to actually solve the problems that drive Central American Americans and South Americans to flee their country to come to the United States in search of & # 39; 39, asylum, "he declared.
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