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If it was for Argentina, the trade war should be aborted now. You are at the hour, before going to the major and leaving the pilot ladder. The damage is numerous. Some visible, such as the vertical decline in the price of soybeans, at least nine years, a hostage in Beijing in retaliation for the unilateral increase in tariffs that Washington has ordered (although behind the decline also operate factors). ;offer). Other, no less harmful, are invisible. Investment based on the benefits of the trade is declining all over the world, and plays against the desires, even, of a capital garúa. And the bill develops with the mere preservation of uncertainty.
Note that Argentina has come out of the recent chapter that could most damage it. In April, President Donald Trump announced tariffs on steel (at 25%) and aluminum (10%), two of the few industrial sectors in which the country has developed its ability to operate. and with an active presence in this market. Unlike the European Union, whose temporary exemption has been rescinded, Argentina has been definitively exempted. Despite the good news, what new investments, what capacity for expansion, can we expect? If that proved necessary, how to compete with an identical project but located in the United States (in the absence of protectionist oscillations)? In short, how to insert in the world if the craft is removed or enclosed in watertight compartments? In the short term, without access to capital markets, and with the urgency of reducing the current account deficit, nothing more untimely than a brawl that stops the locomotive from trading. If it was in the hands of Argentina, avoiding it would be a priority. This is not, although chaired by the G20 and can see the fight of a very good location. In the same way, despite all its efforts, the Eleventh WTO Ministerial Conference went through Buenos Aires without progress, penalty or glory.
Trump against China The trade confrontation is a fact. In March, an investigation by the US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, confirmed unfair business practices in technology transfer, intellectual property and innovation (in violation of Section 301 of the Copyright Act). 1974 on foreign trade), and establish a timetable for its rehabilitation or the application of sanctions. There was no arrangement. And on Friday 6, Trump advanced on a $ 34 billion package of imports from China to which he attached a 25% duty. Beijing responded in a mirror act. Eye for an Eye It was the formal beginning of the commercial war, a skirmish of limited economic reach but a high media intensity. Soon, $ 16,000 million of additional goods will be taxed in the same way, and that is to badume reciprocity. But Trump did not stop. In a few months, $ 200,000 million of additional imports will be achieved through a 10% tax. China will not be able to follow the train. In 2017, while it sold 505,000 million dollars in the United States, it imported only 130,000 million (or 170,000 according to Chinese statistics). "Trade wars are good and they are winning fast," tweeted Trump when he chose steel and aluminum. Not so fast. Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned: "In the West, there is the notion of receiving a blow and turning the other cheek.We, on the other hand, make it." Beijing accompanied the heat the conflict with a gradual depreciation of the renminbi, which could be accentuated and neutralize the effect of rising tariffs. US companies operate with subsidiaries in China with domestic sales in excess of $ 300,000 million and could serve as targets. And therefore a broad spectrum, from paraarancelarias to the nuclear button of the liquidation of its American bond holdings (1, 7 trillion dollars approximately), whose mere suggestion could cause a financial tremor (and the strength of the Fed, it is committed today to cut your balance sheet, act as buyer of last resort). Meanwhile, the WTO seems helpless.
Will this come to an end? We did not think so, but Trump keeps his word. Understand that when you raise the rates, a shot is given to the feet. Steel and aluminum are inputs, and in the United States. there are more jobs in the industries that use them as such than in those that manufacture them. Does it make sense to increase costs, hurt competitiveness, punish consumers? What is won? The action of the iconic US Steel today is worth 20% less than in March, on the eve of hostilities. Will the conflict intensify? Strictly speaking, are we going to war or to a "Trump" bargaining table? Steve Bannon, a former presidential strategist, says that in one hundred years nobody will remember anything except if China 's supremacy is stopped. Wall Street, who has already lived peacefully with the North Korean saga, is trying to imagine what the case will look like. There is someone who evokes the war of galaxies that in the eighties Ronald Reagan pushed to implode the Soviet Union (to, well, devote a unipolar world). In fact, the economic ties between China and the United States are so close that an implosion would be a mutual calamity. At the end of the day, Trump looks for the usual: close a good deal; not ruin the trade, but take a larger share of the pie; and if possible, a photo with an epigraph before voting in November. Of course, he plays with fire and with dubious skill. And that opens so many fronts that sometimes Wall Street is scared. It came in April – it has crossed the threshold of a 10% downward correction – and this week when Trump doubled the bet.
Wall Street can wait; for Argentina, the delay is tedious. He has already set up the agreement with the IMF and a truce on the foreign exchange market, and he should cement the financial stabilization with the heading of a firmer recovery of the bonds and the actions that keep him off from what is still at the edge of an abyss. [19659002Riendepluscontre-indiquépourvotrechancequel'aversionaurisquesurlesmarchésinternationauxLasilhouettedelaguerredecommercecouvrelesoleilUneindéterminationquivousenlèvemaisnevousdébarrbadepasdevotreautrekarmaAveclahaussedel'inflationauxÉtats-UnisetlaguerrecommenousleverronslaFedseratenacedansseseffortspourrelancerlestauxd'interest
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