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by Gideon Rachman
The disappearance and probable death of Jamal Khashoggi is a tragedy and a mystery. This is also a blow to US policy in the Middle East.
Up to now, the Trump administration's strategy towards the Middle East has focused on Saudi Arabia and the mercurial figure of Prince Mohammed bin Salman, or MbS. . The crown prince of Saudi Arabia was destined to form the union of an alliance against Iran, to conclude peace with Israel, to face the regime of the mullahs in his country and to help the destruction of the State. Islamic in his country and abroad. . This alone would also liberalize Saudi society and transform the economy. And, at the same time, it would bring benefits to American companies.
The importance of Saudi Arabia in Donald Trump's global vision was brought to light when the US president made his first official trip abroad to Riyadh, the capital. Saudi MbS quickly established a close relationship with Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law. The two men are around 30 years old and together they conspired to redo the geopolitics of the Middle East.
The charismatic offensive of MbS went beyond the Trump family. The Crown Prince wooed Western journalists. He sent messages to influential people in Washington.
During a trip to the United States, MbS rubbed shoulders with American "royalty": Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and Rupert Murdoch.
However, even some of the MbS fans have reserved their opinion. As one Western observer from Saudi Arabia observed: "My question was always where to put him between the ranks of Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore and Saddam Hussein of Iraq."
In other words, should we consider The MbS as a visionary builder of a nation or an uncontrollable despot?
Those who claimed that the Saudi leader was, above all, dangerous, had many unsettling evidence to present: a spiral war in Yemen that provoked a humanitarian disaster and a bitter dispute with neighboring Qatar, which resulted in a blockade led by the Saudis; the temporary imprisonment of the Prime Minister of Lebanon; the purge of many of the wealthiest entrepreneurs in Saudi Arabia; and the imprisonment of journalists and human rights defenders, some of whom, like Khashoggi, had fled abroad.
However, despite all this, Western ministries still had the wisdom to think about MbS: it was basically "a positive factor", albeit a little rash.
The Crown Prince's decision to allow women to drive was a powerful blow in the battle to influence world opinion. Its tacit alliance with Israel to contain Iran has kept it on good terms with the White House. But the apparent murder of Khashoggi has transformed the Western attitude towards MbS. Despite all the sophistication with which he manipulated opinion leaders in the United States and Europe, the Crown Prince clearly did not understand the potential impact of such a brutal and brutal action. as blatant.
Unlike the Yemeni families who were victims of Saudi bombs, Khashoggi wrote a column for the Washington Post. The US media are fully supportive of Khashoggi and Congress has threatened to impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia. Even Trump promised "serious" consequences if Saudi guilt was proven.
However, even if the United States will have to get rid of their illusions on MbS, it is finally possible that this does not change their policy. Western officials are well aware of the economic and strategic importance of Saudi Arabia. The kingdom is the largest exporter of oil and the largest arms importer in the world.
As oil prices are already rising with the coming into force of new sanctions on Iran, Saudi Arabia's role as an oscillating or "oscillating" producer, "C is even more important. Trump, obsessed with exports, has already made it clear that he is reluctant to sell the Saudi arms market to Russia or China – he is not the only one to share this concern, though
If relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia deteriorate, the influence of the United States in the Middle East will further weaken it. Unlike the United States, Russians can now boast of solid relations with all major regional powers, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt, and Turkey. [19659010] If relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia deteriorate, the influence Americans in the Middle East will be further weakened.
Russia's military intervention in the Syrian conflict also means that Moscow is now playing a much more active role than Washington in the Syrian peace talks likely to influence the balance of forces in Syria . the whole region.
The United States, once the undisputed leader of the region, currently has much more limited relations than Russia. The United States has cut all routes to Iran and its relations with Turkey remain tense, while the Turkish government has released the American pastor Andrew Brunson, detained for two years for espionage. If the United States continues to threaten Saudi Arabia with "severe" sanctions, it will also alienate the Gulf states.
The military intervention of Russia in the Syrian conflict also means that Moscow is now playing a much more active role than Washington. Syrian peace talks could affect the balance of power in the region
That is why the Trump Administration will do its utmost to limit the diplomatic consequences of the case Khashoggi. Even Congress will be careful. Given the sad realities of realpolitik, it is difficult to blame them. But it will be necessary to abandon the idea that the United States can build a great strategy around the manic figure of MbS. "Do not trust princes" has always been good advice.
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