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Last Sunday, 55.13% of Brazilian voters voted in the second round in favor of Jair Bolsonaro and crowned him as the new president of that country. This means that nearly 58 million Brazilians supported a politician advocating a radical right-wing populist rhetoric, marked by authoritarianism, xenophobia, homophobia and misogyny. Does the success of Bolsonaro augur a new era of radical right-wing politics in Latin America?
The outcome of the elections in Brazil is certainly worrying. Although Bolsonaro, who comes from the military world, is the favorite, few people thought that he would get more than 40% of the votes in the first round. And then, the majority bet on a rather tight result in the second round, which has been disputed with Fernando Haddad of the Workers Party (PT). But Bolsonaro ended up imposing it by a wide margin.
Many observers claim that the wave of right-wing populism that engulfed the United States and that much of Europe are now heading to Latin America, where conditions are conducive to the prosperity of politicians. populists. But, although this concern has its foundations, there are essential differences between the Latin American and even Brazilian context, and that of Europe and the United States.
In Europe, the main problem that nurtures support for the radical right is immigration, issue that has reached the peak of public debate due to the mbadive influx of refugees which reached its peak in 2015. However, in Latin America, citizens are much more concerned about economic prosperity and public safety than immigration.
With regard to the United States, President Donald Trump's program, like his electoral victory, is based on partisan loyalty. Republican leaders may have problems with Trump's style, but their support has been essential to the achievements of his government . An example is Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court confirmation, whose response to allegations of badual badault during the confirmation process would have disqualified him in less partisan circumstances.
On the contrary, Bolsonaro does not have a powerful partisan mechanism. to support him. He is a member of the Liberal Social Party, which has changed much of its platform by opening more conservative social policies since Bolsonaro joined them this year.
Many observers claim that the wave of right-wing populism that has ravaged the United States and much of Europe is now heading toward Latin America
A very Brazilian phenomenon [19659009TheBolsonarophenomenonisnotevenrepresentativeofthewiderLatinAmericanpolicywhich recently moved to the right, but it remains moderate . Mauricio Macri, Argentina, and Sebastián Piñera, Chile, elected respectively in 2015 and 2017, ruled as center-right leaders.
Given this, it seems clear that Bolsonaro's rise to power is a direct result of the particular situation of Brazil which includes a devastating economic recession and revelations of mbadive corruption scandals that have tainted the PT and the entire political clbad of the country.
But the fact that the Bolsonaro presidency is not part of a larger right-wing populist wave in Latin America does not make the prospect less dangerous for Brazil.
These conditions are very similar to those that made it easier. in the late 1990s, the rise of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, which implemented radical institutional reforms giving it virtually unlimited power to overthrow democratic processes. These reforms are one of the main reasons why his successor, Nicolás Maduro, managed to make Venezuela an authoritarian regime.
Could the Bolsonaro presidency pose a similar threat to Brazilian democracy? The short answer is yes, precisely because, like Maduro, it would be difficult for Bolsonaro to govern in another way.
Elite Division
To govern legitimately, Bolsonaro will have to gain broad support from the public and political elites. and business . However, although the new Brazilian Congress is more conservative than the previous one, it is very fragmented, with parties of left and right that have lost their support. This will prevent the next president from continuing his legislative agenda unless he can get the support of a broad coalition.
For its part, the business world is divided on the economic program of Bolsonaro. Many express serious doubts about the sustainability of the neoliberal reforms proposed by their economic team
. In addition, may find it difficult to maintain popular support, given the challenges it will face in fulfilling its campaign promises . ] If it can not produce results quickly, broad layers of the population could turn against it, especially since the PT has a large base of support that can generate concerted resistance. to the Bolsonaro administration.
In these circumstances, Bolsonaro and his military allies may well undermine Brazilian democracy, as did Chavez in Venezuela . This could include not only governing by decree and purging state institutions, but also silencing the media and suppressing civil society. That would be quite ironic, as during the campaign, Bolsonaro often warned that a PT government would turn Brazil into Venezuela with its left-wing policy, although previous PT administrations did not do it.
Bolsonaro had often warned that a government PT would turn Brazil into Venezuela with its left-wing policy, although previous PT administrations did not do it.
As stated the former President of Brazil, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, the threat may not have been realistic, but he helped Bolsonaro to mobilize voters already angry at the PT – and against the political system in general – for their participation in large-scale corruption scandals. If this (understandable) anger darkened the brazilians' judgment to the point of choosing Bolsonaro, their worst fears could now be realized. His country could be plunged into turmoil, like Venezuela because of the rapid erosion of democratic institutions
In summary, Latin America generally does not not facing a populist right wave. But that does not make threatening the threat Brazil faces. To face it, the main right and left parties will have to take a strong and effective position in the defense of liberal democracy.
Cristóbal Rovira Kaltwbader is a professor at the School of Political Science at Diego Portales University, in Santiago de Chile. He is co-author with Cas Mudde of "Populism: A Very Short Introduction". and is one of the editors of & quot; The Oxford Handbook of Populism & # 39 ;.
CRISTÓBAL ROVIRA KALTWASSER
Project Syndicate
Santiago de Chile
The most controversial sentences of Bolsonaro
Homobaduals
"Homobaduals are destined for drug use alone a small part is used in the factory. "
"I will not fight or discriminate, but if I see two men kissing in the street, I will hit them."
"I would be unable to love a gay son. will not answer like a hypocrite, in front of that, I prefer that one of my sons dies accidentally. "
Women
" She does not deserve to be raped because she is very bad, because she is very ugly, not of me I would never rape her. "(Reply to a member of the left.)
" It is not a question of placing women's quotas simply because We need to put trained people in. They place women because they are, I should also hire blacks. "
" I have five children: there were four men, there in the fifth day I have a weakness and a woman came. "
Ideology
" The mistake of the dictatorship was to torture and not to kill. "
"It is necessary to give the criminals six hours to surrender, otherwise the poor neighborhood is strafed by the air."
Racism
"I do not risk that one of my children falls in love with a black woman because they were very well educated "
" They do not do anything (black communities). We spend more than a billion dollars per They are not even used to procreate. "
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