The least economic expansion of the year puts the 2018 GDP ceiling at 4%

Its lowest rate of expansion of the year was recorded in September by the Chilean economy, after the announcement of the publication of the indicator. monthly economic activity (Imacec) ninth month 2., 3%, confirming that the slowdown announced for the second half of the year is already a fact. Of course, this figure was higher than the market consensus (2%).

During the country month, which was two days less, mining activity declined by 2% on an annual basis, with the remainder increasing. 2.5%

With registration, the third quarter saw an average growth of 2.9%, after the 4.3% and 5.3% observed respectively in the first two quarters of this year. [19659004] Of course, in seasonally adjusted terms, Imacec was able to grow 0.4% from the previous month, encouraged by a 1.9% advance in the mining sector, while the non-mining sector barely grew by 0.3%.

they derailed the register and took advantage of the review of "optimism" left by the Central Bank in its latest report.

"Although the external environment has become more complex, potential growth of about 3% is further hindering our expansion, and there is an urgent need to move the reforms forward. that strengthen our ability to grow, "said Sergio Lehmann, chief economist at Bci Estudios.

For him, the last estimate of the plant "seems somewhat optimistic" and predicts the closure of 2018 "In value close to the floor of the growth range" presented in September, between 4% and 4.5%.

During the last quarter, you see a slight growth of 3%, "with some variations from month to month", and note that in the last quarter of the year "the annual basis of comparison is more demanding ".

Miguel Ricaurte, chief economist at Itaú, is of the same opinion: "Despite the sharp slowdown in activity in the second half of the year, played a significant role in the growth of the year, we will not be very far from this threshold. "

For him, it would not be surprising that the Central Bank corrects its previous forecasts. "This is not the first time that the governing body needs to correct its scenario, and it can do so in the December Monetary Policy Report."

The same goes for Valentina Rosselli, chief economist at Econsult. "This will likely prompt the Central Bank to adjust its forecast in the December monetary policy report to 4% by 2018 and to a range of 3% to 4% by 2019.

From Scotiabank, the economic group pointed out that "the expected growth of the issuer was 38% in the third quarter and was 2.9% .This places the growth of the year with a ceiling of 4%. "

" The data showed that the base scenario of the September Monetary Policy Report would not be achieved in terms of activity or employment. floor growth projection of the range, "they pointed out.

Gabriel Cestau, economist at Banco Santander, believes that "to re-evaluate the baseline scenario, it will be essential to monitor the external scenario and to deepen the reality of the labor market".