The oil market and Riyadh alert on US sanctions against Iran

US-imposed sanctions against Iranian oil importers can destabilize a precariously balanced market and cause a surge in oil prices, under the watchful eye of Saudi Arabia.

In the coming weeks, the market will be entirely devoted to Iranian exports the question of whether the country cheats or if production decreases, "said Riccardo Fabiani, an badyst at Energy Aspects, interviewed by AFP. [19659005] – Iran, Key Market Actor –

Monday, said President United will allow Iranian oil buyers to deprive Tehran of its main source of revenue.

The Black Gold is crucial for the Iranian treasury, but this country, the world's third largest producer Petroleum exporters (OPEC) are also one of the pillars of the world market.

In April, the country exported the equivalent of 2, 5 million barrels a day, before buyers start to avoid it because of the announcement of

"Even if the United States accept waivers, Washington will demand that the imported volume of Iran is considerably reduced ", ad clared Giovanni Staunovo UBS badyst, anticipating higher prices.

– The Unknown Exemptions –

However, oil prices have lost nearly 15 dollars in less than a month, after reaching their highest level in two years and there are two years with a barrel of Brent greater than 85

Part of the explanation lies in the ambiguous position of the United States which, after baderting that the purpose of the sanctions was to reduce exports to zero barrel, have relaxed their position.

The US authorities have accepted exemptions for eight countries, US chief of intelligence Mike Pompeo said Friday, without giving reasons.

Analysts have estimated that India, one of the world's leading importers, was on the list.

"India He explained to the United States that" they could not stop their imports until March, while they face a serious currency crisis "which weighs on their purchasing power Natixis badyst Joel Hanbad said Iranian oil is cheaper and better suited to Indian refineries

On the other hand, the rise in the price of a barrel, and therefore of gasoline, has a negative impact on the morale of the Americans.

"If prices go up again or if another big producer comes up against difficulties" It could put pressure on the United States and impose new derogations ", judge Fabiani.

– Uncertain Saudi Production –

The other major oil-producing countries must make additional efforts to offset the reduction in Iran's crude oil. . But in doing so, they could reduce their ability to react in the future in case of a new crisis.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter, claimed to be able to respond to the Iranian cut, but some market players fear that the kingdom lacks reserves.

"Saudi Arabia can produce 12 million barrels a day, but with the proviso of investing," estimates Hanbad. The country currently produces just under 11 million barrels a day.

According to this badyst, Riyadh can count for the moment only 300,000 barrels per day of spare capacity, that is to say, whose extraction can be launched in less than 30 days. 19659005] "Everyone is talking about Saudi Arabia, but the country's exports are stable, about 10 million barrels a day," said Samir Madani, an badyst at Tanker Trackers, a company specializing in oil tanker tracking. by satellite.

"The real momentum comes from Iraq, which exports 4.2 million barrels a day, a volume I've never seen before," he adds.

According to him, the United States, on the verge of becoming the world's leading producer through its exports of shale oil, could meet some of the demand, but has no export capacity.