Trump loses support for its trade war and China rushes to strengthen its European ties

The US-China trade war has its first effects outside the financial sphere: US farmers who traditionally support President Donald Trump's Republican Party show their dissatisfaction in polls, and the leaders of their training insist "This is not the right path for us."

For China, the picture is different. In a swift move after the entry into force of US tariffs and those imposed by Beijing in retaliation, Chinese leaders are already trying to strengthen their ties with Europe, where many are affected by the new Washington policy.

"The Greatest Commercial War of History", as it was called Beijing, left on Friday, when the United States imposed a series of Chinese products with a 25% tax – for a total of $ 34,000 million – and have led China to react with rates similar to those of soybeans, pork and corn, "This pricing situation m worries me a lot," told the Associated Press Jimmy Tosh (35), a Tennessee pig farmer. the one that Trump got 60% of the votes in the 2016 presidential elections. Tosh, like his family, voted all his life for the Republican Party, but the uncertainty caused by the tariffs managed to take him to the polls. Opposition: he will vote Democrats in the mid-term elections of November. In these elections, Republicans play most of what they have enjoyed in recent years in both houses of Congress.

Not the only one who thinks so, and several Republican candidates in Missouri, Indiana, Pennsylvania and North Dakota have had polls from the Washington Post and George Mason University showed that 56% of US voters believe that the conflict started by Trump will be detrimental to jobs in the United States. the country and 73% think that it will increase the price of products. A strong majority of Republicans at the national level (56%) share this concern. However, 64% of pro-government voters still hope that by the end of the day, the trade war will be good for creating jobs in the country.

The poll also revealed that the opinion is even more unfavorable in the districts that will be competing in this year's legislatures, which renew the entire lower house and one-third of the Senate: 78% of the voters in these states have characterized Trump's commercial offensive as "bad".

The most complicated are the Republicans in Congress, who have not been able to set a clear position before the trade war: although they insist that "this is not the case. not the right way, "Senate leader Mitch McConnell, ready to go against their own president and take action to limit potential damage to the US economy.

Consumers are not likely to see an immediate rise in prices. Companies like Harley-Davidson said they will avoid increasing the value of their products, but tariffs will increase production costs for Chinese firms that rely on Chinese inputs and, ultimately, prices. increase.

Friday is not enough to put the country in a recession, but if the president continues to impose tariffs, it's possible that this will happen, "said William Reinsch, an expert at the Center for Studies. Strategic and international, who served as deputy secretary of US trade during the Bill Clinton administration.American institutions, like Bank of America Merrill Lynch, share this fear.

"Nobody knows how it goes Finish, it's like seeing two eight-year-olds in a competition to see who's blinking first. "

.First casualties

The open front with China is arguably the one that has the greatest impact. impact on the trade war, but it's not the only one. "Trump fights against the EU, Canada and Mexico, among others, who have already claimed their own victims.

Mid- Continent Nail Corporation, the largest producer of nails at x United States, was forced to lay off dozens of employees last week and could close soon. Volvo has canceled more than 4,000 new jobs it hoped to create in South Carolina; Harley-Davidson said it would move some of its production outside of the United States. and REC Silicon (a company that delivers silicone – based materials to the energy industry) announced yesterday that it will have to lay off a hundred employees. All these companies blame the fees.

On the eastern front of the war, China began moving its chips in search of economic support. Prime Minister Li Keqiang went to Bulgaria for the 7th China-Central and Eastern Europe Summit (China-CEEC, or 16 + 1), where he met with leaders and businessmen from 11 members of the European Union and five countries. The Balkans, and promised that China "will continue to open its markets."

The aim of the Chinese representative was to strengthen Beijing's trade relations with the governments of the region to strengthen its mega infrastructure project known as the Strip Initiative and the Road (also called the new road of the silk). But Li also sought a rapprochement with the rest of the EU

"We strongly support the European integration, and this position will not change," he said, pointing out that the EU is an important force "to safeguard global peace and stability", and it is also "the biggest partner" of economic and trade cooperation in China. These phrases have been interpreted by the media as a nod to the European bloc.

China has asked for EU support to form a united front against Trump's tariffs. In this line, Li will arrive tomorrow in Germany to meet Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Up to now, Beijing has only limited reciprocal tariffs on US imports, but could take additional measures if it wanted to harm Trump. For example, say the experts, this could favor the boycott of iconic North American companies that today sell more products in China than in their home country, like General Motors.

"Beijing has several non-tariff tools that could make life more difficult. US companies could order domestic industries that buy US components to do so elsewhere and, above all, could devalue the yuan, which would make Chinese exports cheaper and, in practice, deny Trump's growth rate, "Richard Bush, co-director for Asia at the Brookings Institution, told this journal.