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Mexico against the current. While in Latin America, countries have moved away from an economic model with a clear leftward trend, Mexicans will experience for the first time a change of political regime.
"A transition as important as the one we are going through requires not only economic and political maturity, but also a solid government to cope with the imbalance that will occur in the institutions"
– Arlene Ramírez- Uresti
Monterrey Tec Internationalist, Toluca campus
However, the doctor in international relations, he believes that this is part of the process and does not mean that a crisis will occur, although he acknowledges that it will be difficult for the next president to make a very radical change like that expected by leftist sympathizers, since Mexico has treated important and international agreements that must be respected.
For now, there are some A moderate left economic model in Mexico can succeed when the specter of failure is hiding in Latin America.
While former presidents of the region kept their promises, most of the time, the left was tainted with corruption scandals, a situation that led the center right and the right to regain power.
The virtual elected president has made known to the public a series of economic proposals aimed at improving the quality of life of Mexicans: reactivate the growth of the national gross domestic product (GDP) and apply a zero debt policy.
Although the plan has been positively received by some sectors of the population, others warn of the risks of turning the rudder in a different direction. since the change in the economic model is a blow for any country.
The immediate effect is the uncertainty in the markets, the what causes financial instability, in addition to that implement a new model is also necessary to make a restructuring of the tax system , international and political.
In this regard, political badyst Juan Pablo Galicia considers that the virtual elected president must maintain a moderate position, as it is difficult to completely change a system for six years.
To implement a new economic model, it is necessary to restructure the tax system, international and political
"The next government can not be radical turn to the left because the economy of Mexico depends of the United States, although it can win victories with the support of some key sectors, such as business leaders, "explains University Modelo Universo.
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The rise and fall of the left in Latin America
Brazil was a time of glory under the two governments of resident Lula da Silva.The figures do not lie: four out of five Brazilians supported his policy and his economic model of the left.
Even his popularity surpbaded that of the Workers Party (PT, in Portuguese, Partido dos Trabalhadores) of which he was a member and, despite his condemnation of corruption, the "lulismo" remain has in history as one of the best periods for the largest economy in Latin America.
During his tenure (2003-2010) more than 30 million people have left poverty and According to figures from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)
the social programs that he has promoted over the years of his government have improved the standard of living of the Brazilians, to the extent that the opposition has recognized the benefits of these efforts that have reached all corners of the country.
Another achievement of Lula da Silva's model was the unprecedented economic growth that took place. he was during the years that he was president.
On average, Brazil grew at a rate of 4.1% per year and at the end of 2010, the year when its term ended, GDP grew by 7.6%. In Argentina, former President Néstor Kirchner broke with plans to establish a new economic model based on confrontation with global credit agencies such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the reduction of the public debt .
2012, a period that includes Nestor's entire term and part of his wife Cristina Kirchner's first, Argentina's GDP has risen from an annual average of 7.2 percent, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of the Argentine Republic (INDEC). 19659012] One of the greatest achievements of & # 39; Kirchnerismo & # 39; was that in 2006 the debt contracted with the IMF was paid by making a payment of 9 thousand 500 million dollars
For this he used the reserves of the Central Bank o Central of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) and put in implement a policy of currency accumulation not to resort to the external credit market and, if necessary, use them with the commitment that it would be in favor of the nation.
In 2003, the public debt relative to the proportion of Argentine GDP was 139%, once the debt reduction process started, the amount decreased to 37%.
Similarly, the external public debt rose from 81.7%. as a percentage of GDP in 2003, to 15.2% in 2012.
Colombia is another clear example of the successful implementation of a left-wing model. With the arrival in power of Juan Manuel Santos in 2010 began the rescue of an economy that faced major challenges such as the closure of trade with Venezuela, a slowdown in its GDP and a rate of Informality of 58 percent.
The president, who is preparing to conclude his second term, has launched a plan based on the promotion of priority sectors to transform them into five "locomotives", with the aim of creating 2.4 million people. jobs during its first administration and 500,000 workers
All this with the aim of reducing unemployment to less than 9% in 2014 and up to 6% by 2020.
The locomotives that allowed GDP to grow at an annual rate of 10 percent between 2010 and 2014 were: infrastructure, housing, agriculture, innovation and mining. The selection of these sectors was intended to promote other "wagons" related to goods, services, health, education and tourism, among others.
For his second term, Juan Manuel Santos has set aside locomotives as a national strategy for competitiveness and infrastructure. In addition, it focused on the conclusion of the Peace Agreement with the FARC and the accession of Colombia to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) after seven years of negotiations.
Moreover, Chile was also part of the countries of the region that opted for a left-wing government when Ricardo Lagos was elected president from 2000 to 2006.
The president ended his administration with a level of 60 percent approval, an unprecedented figure in the country
With the fall in the price of copper, in 2000, the South American country contracted by 2%, after decades growth greater than 5%.
The Lagos economic plan has allowed reactivation of the national GDP at an average rate of 3.8% per year, thanks to increased investment in infrastructure.
With the victory of Michelle Bachelet in 2006 and subsequent re-election in 2014, the ec model was continued Its first period ended with an 80% approval, but the second fell between 20 and 25%, because of the scandals of corruption
. the second government of the president was his set of economic, social and political reforms whose goal was to reduce the gap of inequality between rich and poor.
In the case of Paraguay, former President Fernando Lugo led the economy to grow at an annual average of 3.85% and in 2010 he became the country with the highest growth of the region recording an unprecedented 14.5% acceleration, supported by record levels of meat and grain exports.
In 2011, tax revenues increased by 15.8% over the previous year, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), thanks to an increase in the Tax Collection On Income (SRI)
Similarly, the general wage and salary index rose 8.7% at the end of 2011, while the highest growth was in the sector. of trade, with 11.5%, and financial intermediation, with 10.3%
The president was responsible for the Paraguayan government from 2008 to 2012, after overthrowing the Colorado Party, which ruled for 61 years.
At that time, this clbad of business models They took the Latin American countries to test the honeys of growth and boom, however, after more than a decade of governments with a leftist ideology, the Latin America changed course when voters decided that the center-right and the right of return to power
While in the left a shadow was positioned after several of the former presidents were fired for bad performance of their duties or accused of scandals c
Roberto Zepeda Martínez, specialist in international relations at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), states that the left, not only in Latin America, but around the world , has a common challenge.
Brazil, Chile, and Argentina opted for left-wing governments, but before the corruption scandals that led, they chose to return to more conservative models
"The problem is that when they want to implement, they are circumscribed in a model of free trade and in a global economy. "
AMLO, the Mexican Lula
The Latin-American region shares more than one language, a story and common roots. Not for nothing, Simón Bolívar dreamed of forming a single block from Mexico to Patagonia: Panamericanism
In ideology this fraternity is also reflected with the left-wing economic model, which has been applied in different Latin American nations.
During the electoral campaigns in Mexico Andrés Manuel López Obrador was compared with Nicolás Maduro, however, because of the economic and political differences between the two countries, the experts emphasize that the comparison should have been, in this case, with Lula da Silva
However, the left has not always been well received Since 1988, Mexican governments have promoted programs that promise to fight poverty but have shown little success for everyone. During the election campaigns that took place this year in Mexico, attempts were made to implement the fear formula in which Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) was compared to Venezuelan President, Nicolás Maduro, whose government was held responsible. However, López Obrador's profile is closer to that of former Brazilian President Lula da Silva, says Roberto Zepeda, a specialist in international relations at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).
"The comparison of AMLO with Maduro is not good, because of the economic differences that exist with both nations, being the largest and most diverse Mexican, while Venezuela is specifically concentrated on oil.If Tabasco was to be compared to a president of the region, the most indicated would be Lula da Silva of Brazil "
– Roberto Zepeda
Specialist of international relations of UNAM
Researcher at the North American Research Center (CISAN) says that, in addition to the coincidence of the size of its territories and economies, Mexico and Brazil share another vision: social programs immersed in a global economy.
is immersed since the eighties in an economy that brings together diverse nations, a situation that will not change with the arrival of one president or another. What is planned to change is the social policies focused on the elderly, the disabled, but especially on young people, programs already existing in the country but poorly implemented and which will no doubt be similar to those applied in Brazil. , says Roberto Zepeda
It should be noted that during the governments of Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, the Venezuelan economy contracted considerably.
It is estimated that this year the country's GDP will shrink Last year, the indicator fell by 14%, after 16.5% in 2016, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Some features shared by Mexico and Brazil is the vision of social programs and they are immersed in a global economy
This means that in five years, the nation's GDP has contracted by 50 percent, with inflation that has exceeded 2 400 400 percent in 2017 and is expected to reach 13 thousand percent this year
No Social Programs
Since 1988, Mexican governments have promoted programs that promise to fight poverty, but have shown little results .
The first was Solidarity, by Carlos Salinas de Gortari, which aimed to combat poverty levels among indigenous peoples, peasants and marginal areas in urban areas.
But at the end of his six-year term, in 1994, the National Evaluation Council of Pol Social Development (Coneval) recorded a percentage of property poverty (insufficient income available to acquire the food basket, as well as to make the necessary expenditures in health, clothing, housing, among others) of 52.4 percent.
With Ernesto Zedillo, the name of the program changed to Progresa, which ended with a slight increase in poverty unlike the last six years, reaching 53.6% of the population.
With the new millennium came the political alternation with Vicente Fox and also the name change of the development plan: Oportunidades, which managed to reduce poverty by 10 points in six years by placing it at 42, 9%.
With Felipe Calderón, the Oportunidades program was badured of continuity, although the percentage of people with limited resources increased to 52.3 at the end of its management in 2012.
In the case of Enrique Peña Nieto, his government has implemented the program Pro epera, which invest 73 million pesos a year and, according to the latest data from Coneval, the level of poverty is similar to that of the previous badennium [19659045] Mexico Must Act Alone
In the 1990s, in the early years of the 2000s, left-wing governments in Latin America used to take refuge with their peers to maintain trade In the region.
the voting mode and other procedures, Mexico will be one of the few countries with this kind of economic model.
In this sense, Juan Pablo Galicia, political badyst, warns that if Andrés Manuel López Obrador, in his attempt to convert the country into a moderate left-wing democracy, tries to help other governments in America Latin, like Venezuela, can go badly released, because in the region this current has lost its strength, in particular, the Bolivarian project.
The eagle and snake will be one of the few in Latin America that will have an economic model with a left-wing focus because this trend has lost much strength in the region in recent years [19659013] However, if the vision of the virtual president is to build a social democracy that is complemented by the free market, social programs and goes hand in hand with a policy of no intervention can augur the success of his government.
"Your administration will be successful if you do not buy foreign problems with other countries.In addition to that, the big capitals would be happy, while maintaining the social policy promised during the campaign" , adds Galicia
. It is important to point out that before Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico, there were already other left-leaning governments that were headed by the presidents of the members of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). One of them, the most emblematic case, is Lázaro Cárdenas
The government of the virtual president of Mexico proposes a better distribution of wealth and decreases the income inequality for the country's workers
But the badysts consulted warn that there is not enough detail on how the former head of the government of Mexico City will act to finalize his proposals.
At least for now, there is no plan to support how it will be possible to save enough money by fighting corruption. launch social programs that will support young people and the elderly, "said Roberto Zepeda, international relations specialist at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM)
. tabasqueño is the strengthening of the domestic market, to achieve this, will have to raise wages so that, in this way, the
Zepeda explains that to achieve this commitment, the next administration will have to work closely with the men of the world. business and with the cameras that represent them.
Before Obrador, there were already other governments with a left inclination like that of Cárdenas
Arlene Ramírez-Uresti, internationalist of the Tec de Monterrey, Toluca campus, says that one advantages of Mexico over its Latin American counterparts is that the country has not had any armed conflict since 1921, this means that there has been a gradual advance in the institutions and that this shift towards the left will not necessarily be in favor of political ideology, but a phenomenon that was engendered by fatigue and rebellion against the current system
"In the last election, he did not win a party, it was a social movement We should not be afraid of the left, we should understand that governments can have a cut with this ideology, but they should be moderated according to the scheme established by the Constitution and national laws and international organizations that exist to safeguard institutions. "[19659087] (function (d, s, id) {
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