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Natural gas production figures are in red and this is a pressure cooker that urgently needs an escape route for the model to Exports of hydrocarbons that the country has not collapse, because according to YPFB data between sales obligations with Argentina, Brazil and the domestic market are needed about 64 million cubic meters per day (MMm3 / d), when in June, this year, according to the state oil company came to produce 53.95 MMm3 / d
The deficit of about 10 MMm3 / j according to badysts consulted is important and leads to rethink the current situation of the sale with Brazil and Argentina.
Panorama of the production
Thus, in 2012, the average daily production of natural gas per day was 53.70 MMm3 / d, to increase in 2013 to 56.20 MMm3 / d and increase by again in 2014 to reach 59.37 MMm3 / d. However, this upward trend is reduced in 2015 with the production of 57.18 MMm3 / d, while in 2016 the result is 56.32 MMm3 / d, while in 2107 the production of natural gas was 54.85 MMm3 / d and between January and June 2018 the gas supply was 53.95 MMm3 / d
In this regard, Herland Solís, departmental secretary of the. Energy, Mines and Hydrocarbons of the Government of Santa Cruz, and Freddy Castillo, Secretary of Hydrocarbons of Tarija, both members of the Board of Oil Producing Departments, agreed that the current situation was due to bad policy government-led hydrocarbons, which did not take into account the fact that the exploration results were long-term.
Solís said that at the present time, 54 MMm3 / d produced by Bolivia are insufficient to fulfill its obligations, so that in some cases a smaller share is sent to Brazil and Brazil. others, the quotas set for Argentina are not respected.
Solís explained that the agreement with Argentina is staggered and that for the winter period from June to September, it should be sent at least 20.9 MMm3 / d and on average 19 MMm3 / d .
"While with Brazil it is a minimum and maximum contract for shipments between 24 and 30 MMm3 / d, but in some cases it has been sent 2 MMm3 / d, something unthinkable when it was signed in a trade agreement 19 years ago ", said Solis
For Castillo the decline of mature wells is a fact and so the new contract that he will sign with Brazil is uncertain because the neighboring country no longer feels confident in our country because it does not have reliable information on the amount of gas that Bolivia has.
"The bad oil industrialization policy wreaks havoc on us, this situation is unsustainable," said Mr. Castillo
in this scenario, Solís pointed out that the production departments are dealing with three options to remedy to the situation.
The first is in the short term and aims to reduce the use of thermoelectric plants and to bet on hydroelectric power plants, which will allow a surplus of more than 8 MMm3 / day of natural gas to be injected into the domestic market or destined for export
The second medium-term possibility is to bet more seriously for the industrialization of gas, which will allow the country to have additional income .
While the third long-term variable (between 10 and 14 years old) is the one that the government runs and they have to do with its program of exploration and drilling new fields.
Alerta
The former Exploration and Exploitation of YPFB, Edmundo Pérez, considered that with current gas reserves, which would only reach 4.3 trillion of cubic feet (TCF) According to estimates of a team under his responsibility, the state oil company must stop selling gas in Brazil and Argentina to take care of the domestic domestic market.
"We are very close to the reserve we have for national consumption, which is what we call Bolivia's strategic reserve.We have been energized without sufficient reserves," said specialist.
Perez stated that according to the unofficial internal calculations of YPFB and its technical working group, about 4, 3 TCF of reserves are counted to date. as a result of volumes committed to the markets of Argentina and Brazil, in addition to domestic consumption of the country which oscillates at about 0.85 TCF per year.
"The proven reserves 2018 are very close to the strategic reserve that must have the country which implies to guarantee the development of industrialization, domestic gas and vehicular natural gas (NGV)", he says.
Perez recalled that as of December 31, 2013, the country had 10.45 TCF of certified gas reserves. by the Canadian GLJ, but they currently oscillate at 4.3 TCF.
"In Bolivia, we have generations trained to do these calculations, there are 100 years of experience, we do not need foreign certifiers who charge a lot of money", he said.
Reservations? Ortiz yesterday asked YPFB to make public once the state of gas reserves to lift uncertainty about future energy security.
Ortiz stated that it was necessary for YPFB to comply with the law and provide the report which is actually delayed because according to the standard, it should have been known in March of this year.
"They hide the information because they know it suits them and because it will prove that everything the Minister of Hydrocarbons and YPFB say does not worry us," he said. there is gas, it is not true, "he said.
The legislator recalled that the MAS government for 10 years has been spending to spend the reserves it has received without discovering new deposits, which threatens energy security and economic stability because if exports gas prices are not guaranteed, it will be difficult to maintain public spending at its current size.
"The fact that Argentina has announced that, compared to the inability of YPFB to provide more gas, signed a contract of three
years to import gas from Chile, demonstrates the weaknesses of the country in the future, because our buyers are looking for new suppliers and this represents a serious risk for the "For its part, the Center for Studies on Labor and Agrarian Development (Cedla) warned of a sharp 65% drop in hydrocarbon reserves to about 7.4 trillion cubic feet of gas and condensate.
For Gabriel Gaite, a hydrocarbon badyst, the most nsato relies on the results of studies that the Canadian company Sproule made to avoid false conjectures
Gaite regretted that this type of studies, which must be done every year, is done every four or five years, which causes doubts between investors and oil companies who need to have precise information to be able to define the amounts that will be invested and the risks incurred to work on the subject of exploration.
"Let's see how Brazil can renew its contract, otherwise it has official information on the amount of gas that Bolivia has," said Gaite.
In this sense Barriga pointed out that the result of the reserves will be known in August.
Figures of the subject
20.9
Million cubic meters per day
According to the contract, this is the minimum, during the winter that Bolivia should send to Argentina. On several occasions, the quota was not respected
24/30
Million cubic meters per day
In the case of Brazil, the contract speaks of a minimum and of a maximum.
In Detail
Situation
According to the ANF news agency, the president of YPFB went to Canada, concerned about the results of the certification of the reserves, while the Minister of Hydrocarbons, Luis Sánchez, remained in Tarija for family reasons.
Renunciation
Perez told Camiri's Millennium Radio, that they would do a favor to the country if the Minister of Hydrocarbons, Luis, Sánchez, the president of YPFB, Oscar Barriga, resigned, and the Director of Exploration and Exploitation of YPFB, Edwin Bbadi
Investments
The Government pointed out that an investment of about $ 1,500 million US is intended for exploration work.
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