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The elections to be held tomorrow in the United States, in which the House of Representatives will be renewed, being part of the Senate and 36 of the 50 governorates of the country, will undoubtedly change the political landscape of this country. But will they have an impact in Colombia? Arlene B. Tickner, professor of international relations at the Universidad del Rosario, explains the effects of the results obtained Tuesday in this country.
Currently, Republicans have a majority in Congress. Can this scenario change with the elections of tomorrow?
At the moment, all the forecasts in the badysis pages estimate that it is very likely that the Democrats will regain control of the House, but that it will be very difficult for them to obtain a majority in the country. . Senate Since the Senate, every two years, 35 seats are elected. and in these elections, 26 of these 35 are Democrats. So, in simple numbers, it is much more difficult than the Democrats, in addition to preserving those who have, to get two more seats, which they would need to have a majority.
Why are these elections essential?
The mid-term elections are still a kind of plebiscite on the behavior of those who occupy the White House. And, in these countries, given the controversy over the Trump presidency, voters should vote against or in favor of the president, who currently has a higher approval rate than expected, with about 42 percent. A small percentage for a president who takes very little time, but high compared to the scandalous who has been his presidency. They facilitate or hinder the agendas of governments by changing the balance of power in Congress. You may be interested in: Trump and the cynical way of doing politics
Do you think that the current Congress, led by the Republicans, has avoided its duty as a guardian the president and his officials?
Yes, it is very clear. We are talking about a president who, in addition to possibly having committed illegal acts, has transgressed a number of established rules of conduct for someone occupying such a public position. And the Republican Party has obviously been reluctant to condemn it and publicly protest against some of these acts, such as open support for extremist groups and their anti-Semitic behavior.
And the Democratic Party went to Trump? 19659003] What is happening is that bipartisanship in the United States is going through a deep crisis, both parties have lost some of their north. In the case of Democrats, the strategy against Trump was not invisibility, but the frontal attack, and this strategy was not effective. Then, the Democratic Party is in default to start evaluating its own agenda and, instead of devoting itself to attacking the president and the republican, is dedicated to proposing alternatives. When the Democrats limit themselves to criticizing Trump's actions, it sometimes happens that it reinforces the effect of support for the president and his party.
A poll found that 91% of Trump supporters believe everything he says and only 11% believe in the media.
The problem is more complex than that, because what happened with the media in the United States and in other parts of the world, is that, given the multiplication From sources of information, each individual can be selective in what you consume. The trend is therefore to seek information in the media that confirms existing beliefs. In the United States, there is a polarization between the media that reflects the polarization of society and that occurs in the New York Times Fox News, which describes two completely different realities.
Although some media file these complaints, their mission is not fully fulfilled, as Trump's Republican electorate does not consume these sources of information and views them as false news broadcasters. That's why Trump's strategy of attacking the media has unfortunately been very effective.
What would happen to Colombia if the Republicans reached a more radical Congress than now?
No more radicals, there is no possibility. We are in a scenario of control of the far right, especially in the White House. However, I do not think that this election will change much the position of the United States against Colombia, because the binational relationship created since the Congress enjoys strong bipartisan support. It is the Congress, for example, that put an end to Trump's attempts to reduce aid to Colombia and other countries around the world.
What will happen to the issue of coca?
Without a doubt, the problem of drugs. and illicit crops in Colombia will continue to be high on the agenda of the United States and, most importantly, the Trump Government. Presumably, if the Democrats regain control of the House, the concern for issues such as human rights will regain some visibility, at least in the congressional speech.
We are now witnessing renewed pressure on issues. as a fumigation of illicit crops, which jeopardizes some of the achievements on the Colombian national terrain, in terms of negotiating with the peasant communities that grow the coca leaf, among other things.
Latin America, do you think that a more Republican Congress would approve an intervention in Venezuela?
Since last year, Trump has been pressuring Venezuela. I believe that in the United States, there is no political climate allowing this country to conduct other unilateral interventions around the world. The wear and tear of the various wars in which he participated is very serious. And I think that explains why the insistence since last year to discuss the issue with different counterparts close to the region, including Colombia. It is to be hoped that, regardless of the results of the legislative elections, Trump's pressure will continue in favor of some kind of military measure, but few Latin American countries would accept this solution, even after the 39, election of the president. Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil
Another issue addressed by Trump is the Caravan of Central American migrants. Is it a strategy to get voters in the legislative?
Yes, it is obvious. Trump has been very successful in adopting a strategy of fear in his presidential campaign and is using it again to try to guarantee the republican triumph in the elections at the Mitaca. He used the migrant caravan to sow fear among some sectors of the American population who consider the arrival of migrants as one of the main sources of their problems and the country, and said that people like George Soros were at the origin of this situation. What is most disturbing is the insinuations that there are criminals, Islamic terrorists and gang members among the Central Americans who are participating in the caravan, but that is the bet and it seems that it is the only way to go. there is some kind of favorable outcome for Republicans in some parts of the country. . Read also: How the caravan of migrants became an electoral strategy for Trump
If Trump gets good results in these elections, will he represent himself at a election?
I believe he will proceed to reelection, what some of us wish for is that the Democrats take back control of the House. In this case, it is almost inevitable that they are trying to set up a process of impeachment, knowing that if the Senate reaches the Senate, Republican Majority, it remains stuck. But this creates a very important political precedent.
I believe that Trump's decision to be re-elected will depend on the extent to which the lawsuits against him progress or the fact that the revelations continue to blur his image. But at that moment, things did not go so bad and it's scary and surprising. Everything will then depend on the way in which the investigations will continue, that they have not succeeded, in spite of all that has been splashed, giving rise to a real sanction.
What Democratic figure could counterbalance Trump in a future presidential election? 19659003] At this moment, it is very early to imagine who this could be. Some personalities like Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren are too old to consider a launch, and one could say that, despite their electoral success, no application that pulls further to the left will get the number of votes needed to win an election. Many women win the primaries, more progressive politicians (liberals in gringo slang) and people of color, which highlights the changes within the party, but it is sometimes difficult to win the presidency in 2020 by marginalizing the central vote. The question could be which Republicans are planning to replace Trump ?, For part of the paradox lies in the fact that, although they won and allowed the Republicans to regain control of Congress, they completely deflected and distorted the essence of this party. Moreover, internally, one is concerned about the continuity of a leader as powerful as him, which blurs the reason for being and the identity of this party.
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