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If you survive the dangerous 80's and 90's and you turn 105, it's likely you'll do it as well in '09.
That's what the results suggest. a study that badyzes the cases of nearly 4,000 elderly Italians. 105 years
The death rate increases exponentially as we get older. At the age of 80, the probability of dying is accelerated due to diseases such as heart disease, dementia, stroke, cancer and pneumonia.
But according to research published in the journal Science human mortality rates grow exponentially until reaching 80, then slow down and stagnate after the age of 105 years old.
The researchers conclude that the projected life expectancy is the same for a 105-year-old as for a 110-year-old, and that the probability of dying after age 105, regardless of age, is still about 50%. That is, it stays constant, does not accelerate with age.
To reach these conclusions, researchers from universities and centers in Italy, the United States, Germany and Denmark used data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics. Thus they badyzed the trajectories of 3,836 semi-supercentenarios between 105 and 109 years, and supercentenarios those who have already completed 110, between 2009 and 2015.
"No we see only that the death rate ceases to worsen with age, but we see that it improves a bit over time, "said Kenneth Watcher, emeritus professor of demographics and of statistics at the University of California at Berkeley, one of the authors of study
How to finish the curve? The big debate
According to the main author of the study , Elisabetta Barbi, from the Department of Statistical Sciences of the University of Sapienza Universita in Rome, her estimates have a precision and accuracy unmatched until now, given the careful documentation of the data recorded on the most old badysts, the oldest of the old. [19659011] However their findings ignite the already heated debate that exists among human mortality specialists to find out whether our species is approaching or not In this particular question one side are those who believe that the probability of die stagnant at an extreme age, as the authors of this study, and on the other that came to the opposite conclusion in previous research and maintains that the death rate continues to accelerate until at the end.
According to Vaupel, another of the coauthors and specialist at the German Max Planck Institute, though mortality remains constant and more and more people are surviving at older ages, the longevity record will be broken. Jeanne Calment a woman from France, died in 1997 at 122 years .
Since then, and despite the fact that each time people live longer, has not yet broken this barrier, and for some specialists it is proof that the human being can not not live beyond that age.
Also in other species
However, according to the authors of this study, there are several species that have a mortality pattern similar to that observed in humans in extreme age, such as as fruit fly and nematodes.
This common point, according to specialists in evolutionary demography of this study, may indicate that there is a common structural and evolutionary explanation.
Wachter and Vaupel theorize that those who survive at extremely advanced ages do so because of a natural demographic selection : they have some sort of "blessed" genetic inheritance that drives them to an extreme age.
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