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Collective immunity to Covid-19 could come and go, scientists say. Or we might never reach it at all. Here are some of the obstacles to its achievement and maintenance.

Young people

Very few people under the age of 16 will soon receive a Covid-19 vaccine. Dr Anthony Fauci – director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases – said young Americans will likely have to wait until early 2022 to get vaccinated.

And this is a major obstacle to collective immunity. Young people may not be very sick from Covid-19 in large numbers, but they can still be infected and transmit the virus.

Anti-vaxxers

According to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor, 20% of people polled in the United States said they definitely would not get or get vaccinated unless their job or school required it.

If there are not enough people willing to be vaccinated, herd immunity is not achievable. And if that happens, the virus will have ample opportunity to spread.

Variants

If the virus continues to spread and replicate in new people, it has more opportunities to mutate. And if there are significant mutations, new, more dangerous variants could emerge.

It could also mean that drug companies need to keep updating their vaccines to be effective against the new variants, and there is no guarantee that every vaccine will be successful against the new variants.

Immunity could disappear

Decreased immunity – whether due to a previous infection or vaccination – could be another reason the United States could move in and out of herd immunity. Scientists do not yet know how long immunity to vaccines could last. So people may need to take booster photos in the future, or annual photos that may work with new variations. This is how the annual flu shot works.