China appears to be expanding nuclear capabilities, US researchers say in new report

Adam Ni, director of the Canberra-based China Policy Center, said the discovery of the apparent silo fields is “pretty compelling evidence of China’s intention to dramatically expand its nuclear arsenal – faster than many analysts have so far not predicted. . “

For decades, China has operated around 20 silos for its liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) called DF-5; now it appears to be building 10 times as many, possibly to house its newest ICBM, the DF-41, according to the FAS report.

“China’s missile silo program is the largest silo construction since the construction of US and Soviet missile silos during the Cold War,” the report said. “The number of new Chinese silos under construction exceeds the number of silo-based ICBMs operated by Russia and is more than half the size of the entire US ICBM force.”

The seemingly rapid build-up has raised questions about whether China is still determined to keep its nuclear arsenal at the minimum level necessary to deter an adversary from attacking – a policy Beijing has adopted since the explosion of its first atomic bomb. in the 1960s.

The posture of “minimal deterrence” has historically kept China’s nuclear weapons relatively low. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimates that China has around 350 nuclear warheads, a fraction of the 5,550 owned by the United States and of 6,255 by Russia.

But China’s warhead count has increased in recent years, up from 145 warheads in 2006, according to the institute. The Pentagon predicts that the Chinese stock will “at least double in size” over the next decade.

“The position of China’s nuclear force has evolved steadily over the past 10 years with mobile road missile launchers recently joined by the nuclear-capable H-6N bomber, a new submarine-launched ballistic missile and a number growing in static silos, giving China an increasingly robust and survivable nuclear triad, ”said Drew Thompson, former U.S. Department of Defense official and visiting principal researcher at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. National University of Singapore.

In a statement provided to CNN, a spokesperson for the US State Department called the apparent build-up “deeply concerning,” noting that it raised questions about China’s true intention.

“Despite the obscuring of the PRC, this rapid build-up has become more difficult to hide and shows how China is deviating from decades of nuclear strategy based on minimal deterrence,” the spokesperson said, referring to China. by the acronym of its official name, the People of the Republic of China. “These advances show why it is in everyone’s interest for nuclear powers to speak to each other directly to reduce nuclear dangers and avoid miscalculations,” the spokesperson added.

Minimal deterrence

The FAS report said the creation of 250 new silos would lift China out of the “minimal deterrence” category.

“The build-up is anything but ‘minimum’ and appears to be part of a race for more nuclear weapons to better compete with China’s adversaries,” wrote its authors Matt Korda and Hans Kristensen.

“Building the silo will likely further escalate military tensions, fuel fear of China’s intentions, embolden arguments that arms control and restraints are naïve, and that America’s and Russian nuclear arsenals cannot be reduced any further.” but rather must be adjusted to take into account Chinese nuclear power. accumulation, ”they added.

Chinese officials have repeatedly stated that China will not use nuclear weapons unless attacked first, and that its nuclear forces are maintained at “the minimum level required to safeguard national security.”

“This is the consistent basic policy of the Chinese government,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying said in January.

As part of this policy, China’s nuclear forces need a credible second strike capability as a minimum deterrent. The idea is to assure its adversaries that Beijing would be able to respond to a nuclear attack with a powerful counterattack, and thus deter them from attacking China.

But the “minimum” threshold appears to be changing, analysts said – a point Chinese state media have not hesitated to address.

“The United States wants China to stick to the line based on minimum deterrence … But the minimum level would change as China’s security situation changes,” said the Global Times, a nationalist tabloid. run by the state, in an editorial published on July 2. after the revelation of the Gansu silo field.

The editorial, titled “Strengthening China’s nuclear deterrence cannot be tied by the United States,” also called for China to increase its nuclear deterrence in light of what it called “the US military pressure on China, “pointing out that the United States has” at least 450 silos. “

“Once a military confrontation between China and the United States over the Taiwan issue erupts, if China has enough nuclear capacity to deter the United States, it will serve as a foundation for China’s national will.” , we read in the editorial.

Ni, the expert from the China Policy Center, said the rationale for Beijing’s nuclear strategy has not changed – it is still based on the idea of ​​deterrence, instead of primary use. But he noted that Beijing’s assessment of its strategic position has changed amid deteriorating relations with the United States – and it is this sense of insecurity that has pushed China towards nuclear expansion.

“One has the impression that it is in a more perilous strategic situation that he must arm himself more quickly with nuclear weapons, and the latest discovery of the silos must be seen in this context,” he said. .

“Shell game”

The apparent new silo field stretches across 800 square kilometers (309 square miles) of arid land near the town of Hami in eastern Xinjiang, and about 380 kilometers (240 miles) northwest of the other field of Gansu.

Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at FAS, and one of the authors of the latest report, noted that the new silos would be far enough from China’s shores not to be hit by conventional cruise missiles fired from the United States or from the United States. ‘other countries. warships in the Pacific.

“This will make them exclusive targets for nuclear missiles, mainly Trident,” Kristensen tweeted, referring to the missiles carried by the US Navy’s Ohio-class guided missile submarines.

Analysts note that China’s 350 nuclear weapons are distributed among mobile land launchers – China has around 100, according to the FAS report – a small fleet of ballistic missile submarines and its nuclear-capable bombers. So it’s unlikely that all of the over 200 so-called new silos will get an ICBM with a nuclear warhead.

Rather, China could play a “shell game” with the missile, randomly moving active missiles among the silos, analysts said after the report from the first silo field.

The silos in the two fields are located about 3 kilometers (1.9 miles) from each other in a grid, meaning the missiles could be moved quickly between the silos. This shell game also presents a targeting problem for any opponent, analysts say.

Chinese experts, meanwhile, dismissed the idea.

Arms control

In their report, Kristensen and Korda warn the United States and other countries against strengthening their nuclear arsenals to counter the increase in Chinese capacity.

“Even when the new silos are operational, China’s nuclear arsenal will still be significantly smaller than those of Russia and the United States,” the report said.

And if the United States adds to its nuclear arsenal, so can China, according to the report.

“More nuclear weapons are unlikely to solve this problem and could even make it worse. Arms control is a challenge, not least because China shows little interest,” Kristensen said in a tweet.

Thompson, the National University of Singapore expert, expressed concern about the lack of government-to-government dialogue between Washington and Beijing on the nuclear issue, especially in light of China’s shift in nuclear stance. Such dialogues are essential for both sides to better understand each other’s doctrines and perspectives and to reduce the risk of misconceptions and miscalculations, he said.

“It is possible to increase transparency and limit the dangers of nuclear weapons by engaging in a coherent dialogue on arms control. China has a responsibility to respond to calls for participation in such talks. But the acceleration of US spending on nuclear weapons will only harden their position. foolproof, the Biden-Harris administration and leaders from all walks of life should pressure China to come to the table. It was a bipartisan tradition to push for arms control during the Cold War. We cannot let this tradition be forgotten. at a time when we need it most, “he wrote.