China launches high-risk test for Trump

President TrumpDonald John Trump Poll: 40% of voters do not think Trump will be reelected Mattis: "I'll talk about" policy issues "when the time comes", China contests Trump claims to be a source of fentanyl MORE faces a major challenge with China that could define its first mandate and have a direct impact on its chances of reelection.

Trump has made hardening against China a key element of the work of his administration. But a trade deal with Beijing has escaped him, with both parties raising their tariffs one after the other in a long back and forth.

The growing trade war has created uncertainty that has disrupted the stock market and the global economy as economists warn more and more that a recession may be on the horizon.

Getting an important deal with China would be a boon for Trump that he could announce on Twitter and at his election rallies. On the other hand, failure to reach an agreement before the 2020 elections could reduce its chances if voters were hurt by the trade war that was brewing the president.

GOP strategist Doug Heye, who traveled to states such as Iowa and Missouri, where farmers saw sales of agricultural products dry up because of the conflict, said voters Trump was grateful for Trump's harshness vis-à-vis China, but also suffered from the trade war.

"They give Trump credit for the fight because no other president was really willing to do it, but they feel the pain," Heye said. "What we do not know yet and what we will have to determine, is what is the political elasticity of these voters."

Trump and his advisers have sought to project optimism on the negotiations in recent weeks while defending the administration's trade policies in the face of growing fears about the economy.

"We are doing very well in our negotiations with China," Trump tweeted Monday, while warning Beijing that it would be "much more difficult" to reach a trade deal after the 2020 elections.

Trade experts are increasingly skeptical that the administration will be able to persuade China to sign a meaningful deal before the 2020 vote. A new series of US tariffs came into effect Sunday, targeting clothing , TVs and other products made in China, and Trump promised to increase them next month.

"The only way to conclude an agreement with the current situation is either that China accepts a humiliating descent of its position, which it will obviously not do.China is now plunged into a long conflict," said Edward Alden, expert on trade and economics at the Council on Foreign Relations. "Or that President Trump accepts an extremely weak deal that would be heavily criticized by Democrats and members of his own party."

Walter Lohman, director of the Heritage Foundation's Center for Asian Studies, predicted an agreement would be reached by the end of the year, highlighting the damage caused by the trade war to both economies. But he added that the prospect becomes more and more unlikely as time passes.

"I think that there will be an agreement by the end of the year and I think politics plays a role in that. I think Trump wants to be considered a supplier, "said Lohman.

"I think that if they spent the year January, it will become more and more difficult to do anything, and finally, if you do not have anything before the elections, American politics will be part of it," he said. he declared.

A White House spokesman told The Hill that the Americans had elected Trump "because they were fed up with excuses and other countries were taking advantage of it."

"President Trump is the first president to take a stand in China and send a clear message that the US will no longer tolerate unfair trade practices that hurt our large farmers, ranchers, manufacturers and contractors," said Judd Deere in a statement. a statement.

"Discussions with China are continuing but there is no doubt that President Trump will continue to use all available tools to standardize the chances of American workers and reduce barriers to the export of our goods and services."

The next few weeks could be crucial for the administration as the US authorities seek to restart negotiations with their Chinese counterparts to make progress. The administration expects the talks to resume in Washington during this month.

A spokesman for the US Trade Representative told The Hill that "the two parties were still communicating at different levels," but did not provide further details on the current state of negotiations.

In British Columbia, bipartisan support is in favor of a tougher policy towards China, which is attacking the theft of intellectual property and unfair trade practices, attack on other national security issues in China.

Trump has nonetheless been criticized for its pricing approach, with experts saying they hurt the Americans and that they are not implemented strategically. Even members of his own party have grown tired of the economic repercussions of the trade dispute.

Trump downplayed the impact on US consumers, saying Sunday that China was paying "all tariffs" because Beijing had so devalued its currency.

The experts dispute these claims.

"It really penalizes Americans more than the Chinese," Lohman said. "American consumers, American manufacturers, retaliation are hurting American farmers. There are many studies that prove it. "

While his administration is seeking a deal on trade, Trump is also trying to crack down on Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei and is under pressure to support Hong Kong's democracy protests, highlighting the myriad problems it faces in Beijing.

Trump dismissed rumors of a potential recession, accusing the media of trying to undermine his chances of reelection and accusing the Federal Reserve of being at the origin of stock market fluctuations, while defending rates of low unemployment and other statistics as evidence of the strength of the economy.

"With a booming economy, low unemployment and rising wages, it is clear that the president's fair trade and reciprocal policy, as well as lower taxes and deregulation, are working," the spokesman said. White House speech, Deere, in the release.

At the same time, consumer confidence fell by 8.6 points in August, posting the largest monthly drop in almost eight years, two days before the new tariffs came into effect.

If the economy slows down during the trade war, it will offer ammunition to Democrats before 2020.

"The hardest thing for a president to get re-elected is a tough economy. If that is the case, it will be difficult for Trump simply because these are the political laws of gravity, "Heye said.

"If it does not succeed, it will be very easy for Democrats to criticize Trump," Heye continued. "It strikes Trump on his brand, which is of paramount importance to him."

Republican strategist Colin Reed, who said Trump's trade war could undermine his support among the voters affected by the tariffs, said Democrats' support for a tougher policy in China would make it harder for them to criticize Trump during the election. election campaign.

"These are the things that Donald Trump ran on," said Reed. "I do not think you're going to see him go back to China, but he has a tightrope to walk on for sure."