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China’s foreign trade maintained relatively strong growth for the 14th consecutive month in July, but the pace of growth slowed slightly from the previous month due to a host of factors, including the resurgence of COVID-19 so much. at home and abroad, extreme weather conditions as well as the fading base effect, according to official data released on Saturday.
Total imports and exports in July increased 23.1% year-on-year to $ 508.74 billion, while trade in the first seven months of the year increased 35.1% to 3 $ 300 billion, according to the General Customs Administration (GAC).
This marks the 14th consecutive month of China’s import and export growth, and total trade growth in the first seven months still reached 22.3% compared to the same period in 2019 in yuan terms, said Li Kuiwen, a GAC official. On Saturday.
Nonetheless, the slower than expected growth rates of exports and imports still reflect uncertainties and challenges for the world’s largest trading nation. In July, exports grew 19.3% year-on-year, slowing from the 32.2% growth seen in June, while imports rose 28.1%, slowing relative to the expansion 36.7% of the previous month.
The deceleration in growth could be attributed to a series of factors, such as the spread of the Delta variant, extreme weather conditions, the appreciation of the yuan and the weakening of the base effect, the experts said.
New cases of locally transmitted COVID-19 caused by the highly contagious delta variant have spread to more than 10 provinces and regions, prompting local authorities to take strict anti-epidemic measures in some areas and to suspend factory production , Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research institute of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, the Global Times told the Global Times on Saturday.
In addition, the severe rainstorms and flooding that hit central China’s Henan Province, a major manufacturing hub, may also have put pressure on supply chains, experts noted.
Another important factor is the base effect, Bai noted. As China’s trade in the second half of 2020 saw a strong rebound, slower growth on the basis of a higher comparison basis could be expected in the coming months.
Due to the volatility of the trade base recorded last year, it is difficult to judge the current pressure on foreign trade simply by these growth rates, Zhang Anyuan, chief economist of China Securities, told Global Times.
As the Delta variant has brought new uncertainty to the global recovery, China’s export performance will largely depend on the ability of China’s complete and comprehensive industrial chains to continue to play a vital role in offsetting the disruptive impacts on global supply chains, ”noted Zhang.
Despite the slower pace, China’s trade with its major partners has grown significantly. In the first seven months of 2021, China’s trade with the United States grew 28.9% year-on-year, faster than a 23.4% growth in trade with the EU and growth 24.6% with ASEAN, China’s largest trading partner, according to the GAC. . Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries also increased by 25.5%.
Specifically, Chinese imports from the United States grew 38.8% year-on-year, while exports grew 25.9%, leading to a 20.2% increase in the country’s trade surplus. China with the United States, according to the GAC.
In terms of products, exports of mechanical and electrical products rose 25.5%, while auto exports jumped 102.5%. Amid high prices, Chinese iron ore imports fell 1.5% year-on-year in the first seven months of the year, crude oil imports fell 5.6%, and imports coal plunged 15%. Imports of natural gas increased 24 percent, while soybean imports increased 4.5 percent.
Going forward, “the prerequisite for maintaining export momentum is to bring the epidemic under control as quickly as possible in order to restore the resilience of our industrial chain,” Bai said.
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