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It’s a big week in the Circa Million III. The first quarter winners will be chosen based on this weekend’s results. The highest point total will get $ 171,750, while the second will earn $ 50,000, the third will earn $ 25,000 and the lowest point total (to choose the 20 games) of the first four weeks will drop to 25 $ 000 “Booby Prize”.
This will be the first round of dollars taken from the prize pool, which totaled $ 4,087,000 with 4,087 entries at $ 1,000 each.
DeadMoneyMedia.com came in this week as the only entry at 15-0. Ten entries went 14-1 in the first three weeks. The amounts of the prizes are shared in the event of a tie.
The lines have been posted since Thursday morning, so everyone has had plenty of time to watch them and handicap the matches for this vital week. Each week is vital with a maximum of 90 picks in the contest, but this week is especially important for those who are close to the money.
We’ll see what happens in week 4 and see how the money soars on top of a week with lots of big favorites.
Here’s a quick recap of week 3:
- The top five consensus picks (top five teams) went to 4-1 (Raiders, Rams, Packers, dolphins, Cardinals); the Raiders and Dolphins faced off, so a loss was guaranteed, but the other three were all victorious
- Consensus picks (most popular side in each game) went to 11-5
- The week 3 record was 11,458-8,867 (56.4 percent)
For the year to date:
- The top five consensus picks are 9-6
- The consensus choices are 30-18
- The overall record is 33,081 at 2,7854 (54.3%)
Quarter prizes are one of the big draws in this contest because everyone has a chance to win, even with a bad start or a bad record. All it takes is a really good race over a period of four or five weeks.
The second quarter begins with week 5 and continues through week 9, as the extra week added at the end of the NFL season leaves us with two five-week quarters and two four-week quarters.
Here are the roughly one million week 4 lines and the number of selections (* indicates house):
1 Bengals * 166
2 Jaguar (+ 7.5) 122
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3 Washington 795
4 Falcons * (+ 1) 292
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5 bears * 298
6 Lions (+ 3) 839
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7 Titans 680
8 jets * (+ 7) 825
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9 brown 689
10 Vikings * (+ 2) 980 (consensus # 4)
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11 dolphins * 624
12 foals (+ 2.5) 467
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13 cowboys * 847
14 Panthers (+ 4,5) 693
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15 Saints * 405
16 Giants (+ 7.5) 742
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17 counts 929
18 Eagles * (+ 7) 237
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19 tickets * 294
20 Texans (+ 16.5) 233
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21 rams * 687
22 cardinals (+ 4.5) 657
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23 49ers * 300
24 Seahawks (+ 3) 1173 (consensus # 2)
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25 Bronco * 772
26 Ravens (+1) 1019 (consensus # 3)
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27 Packers * 870
28 Steelers (+ 6.5) 491
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29 Bucs 1347 (consensus # 1)
30 Patriots * (+ 6.5) 319
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31 Chargers * 962 (consensus # 5)
32 Raiders (+ 3) 496
The top-five consensus is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Chargers.
Check back each week with a Saturday preview of the Circa Million III to track number of selections, consensus, ranking and more.
In the Circa Survivor, many entries brought a big sigh of relief with Cincinnati’s comeback victory over the Jaguars on Thursday night. We entered this week with 2,917 of 4,080 registered. At $ 1,000 each, those entries made up a prize pool of $ 4,080,000, but the Survivor had a guaranteed prize pool of $ 6 million, leading to what we call an “overlay.”
A late wave of entries entered the fray with prospects of over $ 2 million “free money” in the pot, but not enough to cover the guarantee. With each passing week, survivors get more and more equity with their entries.
This year’s contest features an added wrinkle with “Christmas Week,” which includes the Thursday game and the two Saturday games of Week 16. These games are 49ers vs. Titans, Browns vs. Packers and Colts vs. Cardinals. The Thanksgiving holiday also remains its own week, so there is some extra planning to plan for.
Adam Burke wrote about Survivor’s options for week 4 and you can read it here.
As for what the peloton decided to do, with a huge favorite on the board in the Buffalo Bills, much of the peloton went ahead and took them against the Texans. Of the 2,917 entries, 1,133 took Buffalo. The Bengals were the second most popular pick at 942. The heavily favored Saints, Titans and Chiefs were also all popular, with 409, 151 and 150 caps, respectively.
Nineteen entries failed to make a choice and were eliminated.
We’ll see how everything goes in week 4. Dave Tuley will have contest updates in his Tuley’s Takes column on Monday and Tuesday, so keep an eye out for those.
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