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A delta variant COVID-19 outbreak in Provincetown, Mass., After July 4, made headlines after it was referenced in a leaked document from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention explaining why it changed its guidelines on indoor masks for vaccinated people.
“Vaccinated people made up three-quarters of those infected in a massive Covid-19 outbreak in Massachusetts, according to a CDC pivotal study,” reads a widely shared article title and tweet from the Washington Post.
“‘It’s far from over’: the blast of freedom from a seaside town, then a U-turn,” read a similar headline from The New York Times.
The study found that vaccinated people who contract the delta variant have as much virus in their noses as unvaccinated infected people (indicating that vaccinated people are able to transmit the virus), and the authors state that ” Jurisdictions might consider expanded prevention strategies “such as new mask warrants and business closures to combat the spread of the delta variant.
While the study caused panic in some corners of the internet, Alex Morse, City Manager of Provincetown, said the study and coverage of the Cape Cod town outbreak lacked significant context.
“Vaccines work” he tweeted. “Of the 900 cases linked to the Provincetown cluster, there were no deaths, 7 hospitalizations and the symptoms are largely mild. Our positivity peaked at 15% on 7/15 and was only 4, 8% yesterday. The outbreak is contained and Provincetown is secure. “
The Provincetown epidemic reinforces what is already known: vaccinated individuals have a very low risk of serious illness from the delta variant. The CDC estimates that nationally, only 0.002% of people vaccinated have experienced serious breakthrough cases.
In highly vaccinated areas like Provincetown (local data was not available but Massachusetts has the second highest vaccination rate in the country with 69% of eligible residents fully vaccinated), the increase in cases will become largely decoupled from an increase in hospitalizations and deaths.
The study did not attempt to answer the question of how many people in the area might have been infected, which would have helped answer the question of how common breakthrough infections are. However, the study makes it clear that if a breakthrough infection occurs, it is very unlikely to lead to serious illness.
“Indoor masking is useful during a peak but is not a long-term sustainable solution” Morse wrote. “Vaccination is. More and more companies here are requiring vaccination of employees and customers. “
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