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Research published in the journal Earth System Dynamics highlights disparities between the most sensitive climate change models and temperature observations since the 1970s. Scientists at the University of Exeter have studied data from complex climate models , comparing them to records of global warming. Recent developments in climate modeling have produced worrying predictions for the planet.
A set of models predicted that a doubling of atmospheric CO2 could lead to a warming of more than 5 ° C.
According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a warming of 1.5 ° C is enough to significantly raise sea level, increase the melting of the ice sheet and increase the acidity of the oceans.
But a similar article published by researchers at the University of Michigan in the United States also questioned the pessimistic outlook for some climate models.
In some cases, very sensitive climate models have predicted between 4.5 ° C and 5.3 ° C warming.
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Scientists therefore want to better understand how the planet is likely to warm up in the years to come.
Lead author of the new study, doctoral candidate Femke Nijsse, said: “By evaluating climate models, we were able to exploit the fact that by regulating clean air, air pollution under form of climate cooling aerosols has steadily increased globally, allowing the greenhouse gas signal to dominate recent warming. “
In their assessments, the researchers looked at the amount of warming that occurs when atmospheric CO2 is doubled.
This measurement is known as Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity or ECS.
Since the industrial revolution, global warming trends have been on the rise due to human-made greenhouse gas emissions.
In July 2020, atmospheric CO2 levels reached 414 parts per million (ppm).
Richard Betts, head of climate impact research at the Met Office and professor at the University of Exeter, said: “At the dawn of the industrial revolution, the earth’s atmosphere contained 278 parts of CO2 per million.
“Today, after more than two and a half centuries of using fossil fuels, that figure is around 414 parts per million.
“If the build-up of CO2 continues at current rates, by 2060 it will have exceeded 560 ppm – more than double the level in pre-industrial times.”
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