Climatologists warn: Gulf Stream in collapse – study

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Climatologists have detected warning signs that the Gulf Stream is in a state of collapse, indicating that it may have already lost its stability over the past century, which could have serious consequences for the climate. , according to a new study.

The Atlantic Meridional Reversal Circulation (AMOC) is a major current in the Atlantic Ocean, to which the Gulf Stream belongs, and at the top of the ocean, it carries masses of warm water from the tropics to the north, while the cold water is carried south, to the bottom of the ocean. . It influences weather systems around the world, making the consequences of a potential collapse all the more dangerous.

AMOC is currently at its weakest state in over 1,000 years, meaning the currents have slowed, and new evidence has indicated that it may already be on the verge of a complete halt.

In the event of an AMOC collapse, rainfall would be disrupted in India, South America and West Africa, leading to massive food shortages. Increasing storms and colder temperatures would be felt across Europe, and sea levels would rise off the east coast of North America. The Amazon rainforest and the Antarctic ice caps would be even more threatened.

However, due to the complex nature of AMOC and the uncertainty of future global warming caused by tipping points, there is no way to know how close the system is to total collapse.

Scientists say it could happen at the earliest in the next decade, but it could still be several centuries before it, and there’s no way to accurately estimate the timing.

“We urgently need to reconcile our models with the observational evidence presented to assess how far or how far from its critical threshold AMOC actually lies,” said study author Niklas Boers of Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Freie Universität University of Berlin and Exeter.

Boers explained that the level of C02 that would trigger an AMOC collapse is also unknown, which means the only thing possible to do to prevent it from happening is to keep emissions as low as possible.

“The likelihood of this extremely high impact event occurring increases with every gram of C02 we put into the atmosphere,” he said.

In addition to C02 emissions, a number of factors are also involved in the degradation of the AMOC system, notably the supply of fresh water, which is also directly linked to climate change.

The melting of the Greenland ice sheet increases the amount of fresh water that flows into the sea. Fresh water is lighter than salt water, which means that it prevents water from sinking to the bottom of the sea. the ocean, a process essential to the continued movement of AMOC.

While the exact timing and trigger for the event is unknown, scientists are certain of one thing – that the AMOC collapse must never happen.



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