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Deciphering how will behave key variables of the Colombian economy is a challenge. Nobody has the crystal ball to bet on a number and less on volatile indicators such as oil prices and the dollar.
However, badysts make their forecasts and for the second half of the year we expect that there will be "calm" in the national economy, particularly because that it implies the rise in the price of oil for the finances of the new government, especially for the year 2019.
That is, higher incomes are expected and with indicators such as l 39; Controlled inflation, the economy would enter a path of stability and reactivation.
This, at least, estimates Carlos Sepulveda, dean of the University of Rosario, who says that the economic outlook is positive compared to what remains of 2018 and that next year
" One variable that will strengthen or weaken this perspective is the beginning of the new government and its economic agenda. "
This teacher projects that inflation would end This year would be 3.2%, which would be in the range provided by the Banco de la República and the price of oil at US $ 75 a barrel, which would exceed year-to-date forecasts As the Colombian Petroleum Association, ACP, estimated an average oil price of US $ 65.
However, some badysts believe that the rise in the price of oil is not sustainable in the medium term and that it can go back. 19659002] For Fabian García, an economist at Bbva Research, high prices encourage the supply of oil, especially in the United States, and "it will be a support for lower prices in the medium term".
This research center is that the price of a barrel of Brent would be medium term (in 2021 or 2022) above the 60 US $.
Among the most positive against the evolution of the price of crude oil, Julio César Vera, president of the Colombian Petroleum Engineers Association, which projects a price of Brent's barrel at US $ 85 of here the end of the year. "This is positive for Colombia" as this will consolidate investments in the sector "so as to maintain our production above 860.00 barrels per day."
And inflation?
The direction taken by the economy depends largely on the accentuation or otherwise of the volatility of world markets.
For example, if the dollar strengthens, it can influence the cost of food in Colombia (the country imports 10 million tons of food per year) and an increase in inflation that experts say will a slight acceleration in the coming months.
However, this week the currency has lost 62 Analysts predict that the average dollar will be $ 2900 for this year.
"In our opinion, the results of inflation in June (3.20%, last 12 months) corroborate that this indicator will oscillate above the target of 3%", said badysts in Ban Colombia
added that if the Banco de la República maintained the benchmark interest rate stable until the end of the year, "it would largely dissipate the risks, while allowing recovery of economic activity. "
For Bancolombia at the end of the year, the country's inflation would end at 3.3%, a figure on which many badysts agree and that would allow Colombians to maintain their purchasing power.
According to comments by Juana Téllez, director of Bbva Research, the recovery of the economy "comes from the side of consumption and public spending. Let's hope that the momentum comes from investment and that monetary policy can change at the end of 2019 with tranquility and a growing economy. "
Projections from different centers of thought and the government maintain that the Colombian economy is projected to grow 2.7% this year and more than 3.0% in 2019.
The Dollar Way
Calculations from the Bbva Research Research Center indicate that for the second half of 2018 a barrel of Brent oil should be greater than US $ 70. "This will be an important support for that the peso is not depreciating because of pressures from the external front, especially the rise in US interest rates, "said Fabián García, economist at Bva.
Given this which precedes, "we think that the dollar would close the year at a rate close to 2880 USD and that in the coming weeks it could approach the 2800 USD because of the behavior of the oil price".
Meanwhile , the economics professor Carlos Sepulveda estimates that the currency will fluctuate around $ 2900 during the second half of the year.
Crude Oil Price
The price of oil has risen this year, in the last two weeks it has rebounded by 13%. According to badysts, this is due to restrictions on distribution in Canadian camps, as well as conflicts in Libya and US threats to impose sanctions on those who import oil from Iran. . "However, these high levels must generate two effects: a lower natural demand for the raw material, given its higher cost and the second, is that these high prices should continue to encourage the increase in production, not just in the United States, but in Colombia, "said Camilo Duran, a macro badyst at Credicorp.
What is expected is that short-term investment projects will increase and, as a result, oil prices should correct downward in the next quarters. Credicorp estimates that Brent would finish the year at US $ 68. Others estimate that the average would be US $ 75 per barrel
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