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Colorado continues to make progress in reducing new cases and hospitalizations from COVID-19, but whether that progress will depend on what people need to do – and whether more contagious versions of the virus spread.
As of Monday afternoon, 535 people were hospitalized with confirmed or suspected COVID-19. That’s just over a quarter of the number of people receiving hospital care for the virus at the worst time in December, but more than double the number at the summer low.
The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment reported 8,460 new cases in the week ending Sunday. This was the lowest weekly total since mid-October.
It will be unclear whether the Super Bowl impacted the trajectory of the virus, as so many other things are changing at the same time, said Dr Jon Samet, dean of the Colorado School of Public Health. Many counties eased public health restrictions on Saturday, so if there is an increase, it will be unclear whether it was due to parties or policies. And more and more people are getting vaccinated, which could undo a small bump from the celebrations, he said.
The improvement since December shows that the restrictions put in place to tackle the deadly November spike have been effective, and that people have generally followed them and paid attention to their face-to-face interactions, Samet said. These conditions brought the virus under control enough that the state could consider relaxing some restrictions, he said.
On Saturday, the state’s numbering framework changed, increasing the number of cases a county could have before it had to move to the next level of restrictions. In Denver’s case, that meant the county could go from orange level to yellow level. Under Level Yellow, restaurants, gyms and other businesses could operate at 50% of their capacity, which is double what they were allowed under Level Orange.
Samet said he was “hopeful” and hospitalizations would continue to decline, but the number of factors influencing the trajectory of the virus make it difficult to predict. The policies in place and the behavior of people have brought down cases and hospitalizations since December, and vaccinations are also working in our favor, he said. At the same time, if people feel safe and start mixing more freely, it could give the virus a boost.
“I would have liked to know how that balance would emerge,” he said.
New variants of the virus are also a potential wildcard. The state found 37 cases of variants of concern because they are more easily spread and 16 cases of variants of unknown significance. Viruses are constantly mutating, forming new variants, but only a few have disturbing characteristics, such as being more contagious or more deadly.
There is not enough data to know how much B.1.1.7, a more contagious version of the virus first identified in the UK, is actually spreading in Colorado, Samet said. If this variant becomes common, it will increase the number of cases and hospitalizations, he said.
As of March, 406,276 people in Colorado have tested positive for the virus and 22,329 have been hospitalized. The state has reported 5,733 coronavirus-related deaths.
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