Complete eradication of COVID-19 possible, new study finds

Over the past few months, there has been an increase in discussions that we you just have to learn to live with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Now, a new study suggests that it may be possible to eradicate the virus from the face of the Earth.

The work, published in the British Medical Journal Global Health, examined 17 factors that influence the realism of such a goal. Among them are technical variables such as the availability of safe and effective vaccines and the duration of immunity. But there are also social, political and economic factors, such as effective government management and public acceptance of infection control measures.

Each of these factors was scored on a three point system. This was to give an idea of ​​the feasibility of eradicating SARS-CoV-2 as they define it: “[the] permanent reduction to zero of the global incidence of infections caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts. This was only achieved for smallpox and for two of the three versions of poliovirus.

The researchers actually compare the COVID-19 virus to smallpox and polio and found that getting rid of COVID permanently would be more difficult than eradicating smallpox but easier than getting rid of polio. On their scale, smallpox gets an average value of 2.7 while COVID-19 is 1.6. Polio is at 1.5.

“While our analysis is a preliminary effort with various subjective components, it appears to put COVID-19 eradication in the realms of possibility, particularly in terms of technical feasibility,” the authors wrote in the article.

But while it is possible, it is by no means certain that it can happen without political will, monetary investments and social understanding of the importance of protecting others. It would not be an easy task, but it would save hundreds of thousands of lives and prevent millions of people from developing a long COVID.

“The technical challenges of eradicating COVID-19 (compared to smallpox and polio) include poor acceptance of vaccines and the emergence of more variants which may be more transmissible or have greater immuno-evasion. , potentially allowing vaccine escape so that they can overtake global immunization programs, ”the authors continued.

“Other challenges would be the high upfront costs (for immunization and upgrading health systems) and achieving the necessary international cooperation in the face of ‘vaccine nationalism’ and government-mediated ‘anti-science aggression’. . “

The authors call for more work to be done on the feasibility of eradication by the World Health Organization or a coalition of country health organizations.