Coronavirus cases in the Bay Area are on the rise. Are deaths also starting to increase?

The third wave of the Bay Area coronavirus pandemic has arrived, just before the holidays. Hospitalizations tend to increase one to two weeks after the outbreak of cases, and deaths up to two weeks after.

San Francisco entered this wave with the lowest death rate of any major American city. With the United States seeing the highest death rates since May, what do the latest numbers show for the Bay Area?

Cases are escalating in California and the Bay Area, mostly due to social gatherings, with the majority of counties in the state regressing to the most restrictive purple reopening level. San Francisco, which was in the orange category just a few weeks ago, is expected to turn purple this week.

In California and the Bay Area, hospitalizations have yet to reach peaks seen in summer. But they are on the rise, at a frightening rate. Health officials have sounded the alarm bells about how this wave of cases could stretch the hospital system. Some countries are worried about exceeding capacity over the next two to three weeks, especially if they see a further increase in cases after Thanksgiving, public health officials said on Friday.

Deaths in California began to increase from mid-November. The Bay Area, however, has yet to see the same upward curve.

This may in part be due to the continued caution by Bay Area counties over the past few weeks about restricting activities compared to other parts of California, UC Berkeley Art epidemiologist said. Reingold. “Deaths are partly a function of the number of people infected and seriously ill and partly of the quality of care they receive,” he said. “The Bay Area certainly has very good hospitals in general (and) very good quality of care.”

The age and underlying conditions of infected groups may also play a role, he said. But timing is an important additional factor. The number of deaths may start to decline a few weeks after the increase in hospitalizations, often increasing weeks after the number of cases. The gap may cause the image to appear a few weeks back.

“We’re not going to have vaccine-induced immunity at a broad level until certainly the start of spring to save us, so there is certainly concern that the upcoming holidays could lead to a spike in infections, and if yes, there will be increases in hospitalizations and deaths, ”Reingold said.

Around December 7, UC Berkeley infectious disease expert John Swartzberg expects the Bay Area to see a further increase in Thanksgiving cases, and then around two weeks later an increase in hospitalizations. If and when this happens, the mortality from this outbreak will depend on the availability of hospital beds.

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Swartzberg said he was concerned that the rates the country is currently experiencing will soon exhaust its health care capacity and lead to a shortage of intensive care beds, as Minnesota and Arizona are seeing in their reports. care facilities.

If shortages do occur – or if the Bay Area is overwhelmed – it could factor into the death toll we’ll start to see in the New Year, he said.

Jess Shaw and Annie Vainshtein are editors of the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected], [email protected]