Coronavirus deaths rise among unvaccinated people in US, delaying progress

• Daily coronavirus deaths in the United States have increased 22% over the past week – mostly among unvaccinated Americans.
• Disease experts are worried about breakthrough cases in the elderly or those who are immunocompromised.
• Increased transmission could also allow the virus to mutate into a more dangerous strain.
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The United States is far from the deadliest point in its coronavirus outbreak: The country reported more than 3,000 daily coronavirus deaths in January, compared to less than 275 daily deaths, on average, last week.

But average daily deaths have risen 22% in the past seven days, after a record 30 deaths on July 11. Over the past two weeks, average daily deaths have increased by 33%.

The vast majority of those deaths are in unvaccinated Americans: Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told NBC earlier this month that unvaccinated people made up more than 99% of recent deaths from coronaviruses. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also reported on Friday that more than 97% of people entering hospitals with symptoms of COVID-19 had not received vaccines.

The United States now faces an “unvaccinated pandemic,” CDC director Rochelle Walensky said at a press briefing.

“We are seeing outbreaks of cases in parts of the country that have low vaccination coverage because unvaccinated people are at risk and fully vaccinated communities are generally doing well,” Walensky said.

But disease experts fear that allowing the virus to spread among unvaccinated people will no longer give it a chance to mutate. It could also pose a long-term risk to those vaccinated. Already, the Delta variant – now the dominant strain in the United States – appears to be more transmissible than any other version of the virus detected so far.

“The worst-case scenario is that Delta mutates into something completely different, a completely different animal, and our current vaccines are even less effective or ineffective,” Baltimore resident physician Vivek Cherian told Insider last month.

Experts also fear that increased transmission could lead to more serious breakthrough infections – cases of COVID-19 diagnosed at least two weeks after a person is fully vaccinated – in the elderly or those who are immunocompromised because vaccines may already be less effective among these groups.

People over 65 account for about 75% of rupture cases that result in hospitalization or death, according to the CDC.

UK offers a glimpse of what to expect in the US

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Disease experts fear the United States will soon follow in the footsteps of the United Kingdom, where the average number of deaths has more than doubled in the past two weeks, from 17 to 40 per day. Average hospitalizations in the UK have also increased by around 60% during this period, from around 380 to 615 per day.

This is despite the fact that almost 70% of UK residents have received at least one dose of the vaccine.

In the United States, about 44% of the population is still unvaccinated. (This includes about 48 million children under 12, for whom vaccines have not yet been licensed.)

The country is now administering as many daily doses of vaccine as it was at the end of December, when vaccines were only available to healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities. Only 384,000 daily doses were dispensed on average over the past week.

Some Americans, especially in rural counties, may still have difficulty accessing vaccines, while others cannot afford to take time off work to get vaccinated. But, for the most part, widespread reluctance to immunize has slowed immunization rates.

About 18% of adults polled in a recent YouGov poll said they did not intend to get the vaccine, while 11% said they were unsure. These rates were significantly higher among Republicans and residents of the Midwest and South.

Most people hesitant to vaccinate in the survey said they were worried about the side effects of coronavirus injections – although studies have shown that the side effects of vaccines are generally mild and transient. The vast majority of them also said they believed the threat of the virus was exaggerated for political reasons.

Lifting the mask and social distancing warrants could delay collective immunity

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Despite lagging vaccination rates, most states in the US have lifted mask and social distancing warrants. In states like Delaware, Florida, Missouri, and South Carolina, masks are recommended but not required for unvaccinated people.

Some disease experts have said removing these restrictions too soon could send the wrong message about the state of the pandemic.

“The problem is, if you’re on the fence and then go outside and see, ‘Hey, things are back to normal’, it can reduce the chances that you even want to get vaccinated,” Cherian said.

For now, experts hope the United States can still vaccinate at least 70 to 85 percent of its population – a threshold that could allow the country to achieve herd immunity. But a new variant that eludes vaccine protection or a previous infection could push that goal even further, so public health officials remain committed to vaccinating more Americans as quickly as possible.

“If you get to that situation, then you basically bring us back to a level ‘we were at before March 2020,’ Cherian said, adding, ‘It’s just not a place you want to be.’