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Despite fears that the flu will combine with covid-19 to create a so-called “ twindemic, ” this flu season has been mild.
So far, Allegheny County has reported no flu-related deaths, three hospitalizations and 180 cases. That’s a notable drop from 12 deaths, 115 hospitalizations and more than 10,000 cases last year.
“It’s not even a mild flu season. It’s not like a season, ”said Dr. Richard Zimmerman, one of the nation’s top flu specialists. A professor of family medicine and public health at the University of Pittsburgh and a practicing physician, Zimmerman leads PittVax, a long-standing Center for Disease Control and Prevention-funded study into influenza activity and vaccine effectiveness.
“We should be really thankful that we don’t have a twindemic,” Zimmerman said. “The last thing we needed was a bad flu year on top of all that covid.”
At Allegheny Valley Hospital in Harrison, there has been only one case of the flu so far this season, said Dr William Bailey, chief medical officer of Allegheny Health Network and an active physician serving the emergency room.
“It’s probably as close to a non-existent flu season as I’ve ever seen in my life,” Bailey said. “We have had very few cases. I think we’re probably down about 98% from the cases last year.
The same trends hold true for Excela Health, said Kathleen Rosatti, director of clinical outcomes management, patient safety and infection control.
“This time last year, we had seen a total of 900 patients,” Rosatti said. “Right now we hardly have any. We’re down to one number. ”
Low numbers of the flu persist statewide, with 2,748 lab-confirmed cases across the Commonwealth as of February 20, said Amber Liggett, a spokeswoman for the Pennsylvania Department of Health. During the 2019-2020 flu season, the DOH recorded more than 130,000 cases statewide.
She said Pennsylvania had reported 34 flu-related hospitalizations and 14 deaths during the current flu season.
“The percentage of outpatient visits associated with influenza-like illness has been low and is still below the state’s epidemic threshold,” Liggett said.
Health officials have said the mitigation measures in place to curb the spread of covid-19 are likely key to this year’s mild flu season.
“The precautions taken to prevent the spread of covid are the same as those recommended to prevent the spread of influenza,” said Amie Downs, spokesperson for Allegheny County. She attributed the county’s mild flu season to basic mitigation measures such as covering coughs and sneezes, frequent hand washing and wearing masks.
Covid-19 and influenza are both respiratory viruses and therefore can both be managed with the same mitigation measures, Zimmerman explained.
“These viruses are all transmitted by similar mechanisms,” he said. “Mitigation measures have a huge impact because they are transmitted to all respiratory viruses.”
Rosatti agreed that covid-19 mitigation efforts are reducing influenza cases.
“Naturally, everything we put in place for covid – wearing masks, practicing social distancing, hand hygiene – all made a difference,” she said.
Knowing that mitigation measures were in place to fight covid-19, Bailey said he was not surprised to see a mild flu season this year.
“What we get is what you expect,” he says. “Stay away from contact, wear face masks, get some distance, all we do for the coronavirus right now is do what you expect it to do for all the other respiratory viruses.”
Zimmerman noted that fewer international travel this year – another symptom of the covid-19 pandemic – has also helped limit the spread of the flu. Flu cases often come from South America and Australia, he said. Less travel around the world means less chance of spreading influenza around the world.
“We haven’t seen a lot of influenza internationally,” he added.
While the focus is on the importance of getting the flu shot this year, flu shots have likely played only a small role in this exceptionally mild flu season, Zimmerman said.
“It may have contributed to it, but I think the mitigation measures played a big role,” he said. “I’m sure no more than half of adults have been vaccinated.”
About 53% of adults have received a flu shot this season, according to CDC data.
While the flu season has been particularly mild so far, it’s impossible to predict what the final months of the season might bring.
“Influenza is unpredictable and its activity depends on many factors, including consistency in the use of covid-19 mitigation measures,” Liggett said.
As long as people continue to adhere to mitigation measures, Bailey said, the rest of the flu season is likely to remain mild.
“I think with the flu and the coronavirus our risk is complacency,” he said. “Things seem to be improving at the moment, but we have to remain vigilant.”
Julia Felton is a writer for Tribune-Review. You can contact Julia at 724-226-7724, [email protected] or via Twitter .
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