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A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences predicts that Covid-19 will reduce life expectancy in the United States in 2020 by 1.13 years, with a disproportionate number of deaths occurring among black and Latin populations. American. When combined with preliminary estimates of death rates in the United States for the first half of the year, the data shows a marked increase in the death rate as the pandemic gripped the country.
“The estimated reductions for black and Latin American populations are three to four times greater than those for whites. Therefore, Covid-19 is expected to reverse over 10 years of progress made in closing the gap in life expectancy between blacks and whites and reducing the previous Latin American mortality advantage by more than 70% ”, according to study researchers, Theresa Andrasfay of the University of Southern California and Noreen Goldman of the Bureau of Demographic Research at Princeton University.
“Blacks and Latin Americans have suffered a disproportionate burden of morbidity and mortality from Covid-19, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase the risk of exposure to Covid-19 and the risk of mortality for those infected,” adds the study.
Prior to the pandemic, the United States had made steady progress in terms of life expectancy, although it has slowed down in recent years.
But the pandemic has delayed all of that progress and has also widened the gap between black and white life expectancies.
“Black and Latino populations are estimated to experience a decline in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 years, respectively, twice several times the reduction of 0.68 years for whites. These projections imply an increase of almost 40% among blacks. “The gap in life expectancy of whites, from 3.6 years to more than 5 years, thus eliminating the progress made in reducing this gap since 2006,” adds the study.
CDC: US death rate dramatically increased in second trimester
New data from the National Center for Health Statistics suggests that Covid-19 has caused a significant increase in mortality in the United States.
The age-adjusted all-cause death rate was 769 per 100,000 in the first quarter of 2020 and rose to 840 in the second quarter of the year. By comparison, the death rate for the second quarter of 2019 was 702 per 100,000, the NCHS said.
Although the report shows mortality increased dramatically in 2020, it provides an incomplete picture of the pandemic, as data for only the first two quarters is currently available.
Last week, CDC statisticians said Covid-19 was likely the third leading cause of death in 2020. They estimated that there were between 316,252 and 431,792 excess deaths in the year 2020.
Heart disease is the leading cause of death, and cancer is the second leading cause of death in the United States.
These estimates are based on all death records received and processed by NCHS as of November 27, 2020.
A multi-year effect
The Andrasfay and Goldman study used Census Bureau data and data on actual and projected pandemic deaths from the University of Washington and National Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation. Center for Health Statistics. They also used various models and estimates of death rates.
“Our average estimate indicates a reduction in life expectancy at birth in the United States from 1.13 years to 77.48 years, less than any year since 2003,” they said.
“This impact is about 10 times greater than the worrying annual declines of several years ago which were largely attributed to drug overdoses, other external causes, and respiratory and cardiovascular disease,” the study added.
The United States is already behind other wealthy countries in terms of life expectancy and the pandemic will make it worse.
“The reduction in life expectancy in the United States in 2020 is expected to exceed that of most other high-income countries, indicating that the United States – which already had a lower life expectancy than everyone else other high-income developed countries before the pandemic – will see its life expectancy fall even further behind its peers, ”the study said.
The effects of the pandemic are expected to last well beyond 2020.
“Some reduction in life expectancy may persist beyond 2020 due to continued mortality from Covid-19 and the long-term health, social and economic impacts of the pandemic,” the study added.
Maggie Fox and Jessica Firger contributed to this report.
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