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A recent study estimated that the average life expectancy in the United States fell by more than a year in 2020, with the country’s mortality from COVID-19 consistent with researchers’ highest projections for mortality.
The findings were published in the journal proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Thursday by researchers at Princeton and the University of Southern California. The study proposed four projections based on the total estimates of coronavirus deaths in the United States as of December 31, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
“The reduction in life expectancy in the United States in 2020 is expected to exceed that of most other high-income countries, indicating that the United States – which already had a lower life expectancy than everyone else other high-income developed countries before the pandemic – will see its life expectancy lag even further behind its peers, ”the researchers wrote in the study.
CORONAVIRUS IN THE UNITED STATES: STATE BY STATE BREAKDOWN
In retrospect, the United States nearly fulfilled the higher mortality scenario, which the study authors put at 348,000 deaths at the end of last year. According to data from Johns Hopkins University, around 345,900 deaths from the new virus have been reported as of December 31. Deaths have since risen to at least 388,692 as of Friday morning, with the country reporting 3,928 more deaths on the last day.
If the pandemic had not occurred, the study authors note that a person born in 2020 would live on average about 79 years, although researchers project that the grim mortality caused by the virus has reduced by nearly 1 , 22 year average lifespan. .
Black and Latin American populations are expected to experience much larger declines in life expectancy than white populations, the researchers citing “enduring structural inequalities” that increase the risk of death and exposure to COVID-19. In fact, the decrease in life expectancy among these minorities is expected to almost triple that of white populations: “ In the higher mortality scenario, life expectancy is expected to be 0.73 [years] lower for white population, 2.26 [years] lower for the black population, and 3.28 [years] lower for the Latino population. “
These disparities are consistent with figures released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which report increased rates of hospitalizations, cases, and deaths for black and Latin populations, compared to white populations, with a higher rate of mortality and hospitalization almost tripled. among Latin and black populations exceeding that of white populations by 4.1, 3.7 times respectively.
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Researchers said the higher toll could be linked to lower paying jobs, job losses and health insurance issues, but also high risk exposure among essential workers, housing overcrowded and dependent on public transport, among other factors.
“The biggest toll for black and Latin American populations is due to both higher COVID-19 death rates and greater susceptibility to COVID-19 at younger ages among these groups compared to whites.” , wrote the study authors.
Of note, the team looked at the life expectancy gaps between racial groups, finding a widening of about 39% in the “gap in life expectancy between blacks and whites,” from 3 , 6 to more than five years, which, according to the researchers, makes it possible to roll back the progress made over the past 15 years. years.
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