COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to decline

[ad_1]

A COVID-19 model that predicts nearly 569,000 people will die by May 1 does not include the new, highly contagious variants that are more likely to infect people during “ everyday activities. ”

Infections, hospitalizations and deaths have declined in recent days. But on Sunday, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) shared a new forecast predicting a third wave of coronavirus later this year if people don’t get the vaccine.

And although the model shows a significant decrease in cases and deaths from March and April, it does not take into account newer variants of the coronavirus that have been found in the United States.

COVID-19 model (pictured) predicts nearly 569,000 people will die by May 1 despite decreases in COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths

And although the model (pictured) shows a significant decrease in cases and deaths from March and April, it does not take into account newer variants of the coronavirus that have been found in the United States.

IHME director Dr Christopher Murray told CNN: ‘These numbers do not yet take into account the new variants. We’ll be releasing models at the end of the week that will, and that will be a game-changer.

“But the decline that we expect to see is coming because we are at the peak of seasonality,” Murray said.

Murray predicts that the vaccine “will prevent a lot of deaths”.

“ But it’s highly likely that we think there will be a third wave of transmission in the winter of 2021, ” Murray said, adding that this prediction is based on whether or not people are getting the vaccine.

Meanwhile, emergency room doctor Dr Leana Wen told the network on Monday that people are more likely to catch COVID-19 when shopping and doing other daily activities now that there are more variants in the United States.

‘We have seen what is happening in other countries that have actually had coronavirus under relatively good control and then these variants have taken over and they have had an explosive spread of the virus and then overwhelmed hospitals’ ‘she said.

Wen continued, “ If we thought going to the grocery store before was relatively safe, there is actually a higher likelihood of contracting coronavirus during these daily activities. ”

The revelations come when Brazil’s “super-covid” variant was discovered in the United States.

Meanwhile, emergency doctor Dr Leana Wen told the network on Monday that people are more likely to catch COVID-19 when they are shopping (pictured in New York) and doing other daily activities now that there are more variants in the United States.

WHAT ARE THE “SUPER-COVID” VARIANTS WHICH ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE WORLD?

British variant ‘Kent’ – B117

British health officials announced in December that a ‘worrying variant’ had emerged in Kent.

The variant is known to scientists as B117, a name derived from the location of its most important mutations.

B117 appears to be more infectious than older “wild-type” coronavirus variants.

Most estimates place it at around 70% more infectious, but some studies suggest it could be twice as infectious, while more moderate projections indicate that its transmissibility is only about 56% higher.

B117 quickly became dominant in the UK and now accounts for at least 61% of cases in that country.

It has been detected in 60 countries, including the United States, where at least 159 cases in 22 states have been identified.

While her mutations clearly seemed to make the variant more infectious, it didn’t seem to change the chances of severe COVID-19 or death.

But British health officials said on Friday it could be 30 to 40% more deadly, depending on how many infected people die from it. The death rate for people hospitalized with B117 in the UK does not appear to differ from that of older variants.

After reviewing data from the UK, Dr Anthony Fauci, America’s top infectious disease expert, said it could indeed be more deadly.

However, he and UK officials still say other variants are of more concern as they can make vaccines less effective – which doesn’t appear to be the case with the UK variant.

SOUTH AFRICAN VARIANT – B1351

A new variant was announced in South Africa on December 18.

It shares a mutation with the British variant – in a location in its genome called 501Y – but also has several other mutations.

The South African variant is estimated to be around 50% more contagious and is already dominant there.

It has spread to at least 20 countries, including the UK, which has at least 77 countries.

South Africa’s mutated variant has yet to be spotted in the United States – but many experts suspect it is already there.

President Joe Biden has invoked a travel ban for people coming from South Africa in an attempt to stop the importation of the new variant.

Dr Fauci says the South African variant is of most concern because it could make vaccines less effective due to mutations that help it “ hide ” antibodies developed after vaccination or a previous episode of COVID- 19.

BRAZIL VARIANT – P1

The variant first gained worldwide attention when four travelers arriving in Tokyo from Manaus, Brazil, tested positive on January 2.

The variant has the same spike protein mutation as the highly transmissible versions found in Kent and South Africa – called N501Y – which makes the spike more able to bind to receptors inside the body.

Manaus, the largest city in the Amazon, has been devastated by COVID-19. Hospitals are running out of oxygen and Brazilian officials have said they are in a state of crisis.

The new variant accounts for nearly half of all cases and is considered to be more contagious and possibly make vaccines less effective.

The variant has been spotted in Japan, France and Germany. It has yet to be detected in the UK or US – but former FDA commissioner Dr Scott Gottlieb said he suspected it had already arrived.

Minnesota health officials said a recently returned resident of hard-hit Brazil was diagnosed with the strain in the Twin Cities.

The variant – known as P1 – is probably about 50% more infectious.

President Joe Biden has reinstated travel bans preventing travelers from entering the United States from several countries with dangerous variants, including the United Kingdom and Brazil. The president recently added South Africa to the list.

But the order arrived too late. The Twin Cities resident tested positive for COVID-19 on January 9 and was already ill by that time.

The Brazilian variant is of particular concern because its mutations can make vaccines less effective.

Hours earlier Monday, Dr Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner and Pfizer board member, said he believed the Brazilian variant was already in the United States.

Direct flights between Brazil and the United States have long been suspended, but routes arriving in the United States through stopovers in other countries are still available according to quick searches for flights on Google.

More than 25 million infections have been reported in the United States since the pandemic hit the country last year

The new variant accounts for nearly half of all cases in the Amazons, and hospitals in the region’s largest city, Manaus, are so overwhelmed with patients that the city is in the midst of an oxygen shortage.

The South African variant is also estimated to be around 50% more infectious.

And the mutation in the spike protein that it shares with the Brazilian variant may make them both more resistant to vaccines.

In fact, Moderna also announced on Monday that although its vaccine still works well enough to be protective against the South African variant, lab tests suggest the antibodies triggered by the shot may be 60% less potent against the virus in vitro. (in cell culture, not a living animal or person).

It is possible that the Brazilian variant has a similar impact on the effectiveness of the shot – but it has not been tested directly in the lab, in animals, or in humans.

Meanwhile, the British variant of the virus has made its way into several US states.

Over the weekend, Washington state reported its first cases of variant B.1.1.7 COVID, which was first detected in the UK.

The variant has now been found in at least 22 states, with the country reporting a total of nearly 200 cases, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

[ad_2]

Source link