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NEW YORK (AP) – Deaths in the United States from COVID-19 are on the decline again as the country continues to recover from the devastating winter wave, a trend that experts cautiously hope will accelerate as more more vulnerable people will be vaccinated.
As new coronavirus infections and hospitalizations fell, deaths drop from a peak of around 4,500 in January was not that steep. But, now, after weeks of hovering around 2,000 daily deaths, that number has dropped. to approximately 1,400 U.S. lives lost each day to the coronavirus.
“I am encouraged by this data, but we must remain vigilant,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the White House briefing on Friday.
Public health experts say it’s too early to say, definitively, what has led to the decline since the outbreak – but they suspect a drop in travel and indoor gatherings after the holidays, the widespread wearing of masks and vaccine deployment have all contributed.
“We are moving in the right direction,” said Jagpreet Chhatwal, researcher at Harvard Medical School. “I think a message of optimism is right.”
Walensky and others fear that a public exhausted by the pandemic should let their guard down too soon. And they are monitoring the spread of disturbing new versions of the virus.
“We’re all desperate to end this,” said Jeff Shaman, who studies infectious diseases at Columbia University. “We are not yet in a safe place.”
Healthcare workers say they’ve seen this happen before – an overwhelming wave of illness and death, momentary relief from a drop in COVID-19 cases, then another deadly wave. About 531,000 Americans have died since the pandemic began a year ago.
“Every time you thought you had an end, the number of cases increased,” said Dr. Mark Rosenberg, chief of emergency medicine at St. Joseph’s Health in Paterson, New Jersey.
For now, most forecasts show that coronavirus deaths are falling further in the coming weeks as more people get vaccinated. Over 100 million doses have been distributed since December and the pace is picking up.
“We expect him to continue to bring these deaths down even further,” said Justin Lessler, infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins.
As of this week, 62% of those 65 and over have received at least one dose, according to the CDC. This is the age group that has been hit the hardest and still accounts for the vast majority of COVID-19 deaths in the United States
Increasingly better treatments for severe COVID-19 will also continue to help, doctors say.
“All of these pieces come together to put an end to the problem,” said Dr. Lewis Nelson, an emergency medicine specialist at Rutgers New Jersey Medical School.
The coronavirus death tally is often late compared to new infections and hospitalizations because it can take a long time before a person becomes seriously ill and dies after contracting the virus. It can also take weeks for deaths to be added to the national tally.
“There’s kind of a longer tail, unfortunately, to death and death from COVID-19,” said Dr. Philip J. Landrigan, a public health expert at Boston College.
This is what happened in the case of Teresa Ciappa, 73, of Amherst, New York, who developed a terrible cough and fever around Thanksgiving. She was admitted to hospital soon after and died in early January of complications from COVID-19.
“Week after week she just refused and refused,” said her daughter, Michelle Ciappa, who lives in Columbus, Ohio.
Her family was there when she was taken off a respirator.
“We watched her take her last breath and that was it,” said Michelle Ciappa. “I wish people were patient and take this more seriously.”
If states continue to lift restrictions, health experts warn, we could see another deadly wave of disease.
On Monday, Wyoming became the last state in a growing list – including Texas, Mississippi, North Dakota, Iowa, Montana and Alabama – to remove mask requirements or plan to to do so soon. Governors across the country have also eased restrictions on the number of patrons allowed in bars, restaurants, gyms and cinemas.
“They don’t take a slow, measured approach. They flip a switch, ”Lessler said. “There is the very real possibility of big resurgences.”
Experts are also concerned about the uncontrolled spread of mutated versions of the coronavirus which spread more easily and could weaken the effectiveness of certain treatments or vaccines.
“It’s always a race against time,” said Jaline Gerardin, who studies trends in COVID-19 at Northwestern University. “The fear is that we won’t catch something when we should.”
Rosenberg, the emergency doctor, said he hopes the public will be encouraged by the downward trend in the pandemic to continue to wear masks, wash their hands and stay away from others.
“We know what worked,” he said. “If we say we are in the last phase of the battle, don’t put your guns away yet.”
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PA editors Thalia Beaty in New York and John Seewer in Toledo, Ohio, contributed to this report.
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The Associated Press’s Department of Health and Science receives support from the Department of Science Education at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
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