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OHSU and other hospitals will likely see a constant number of COVID-19 patients in Oregon as people become more lax on precautions. (OHSU / Christine Torres Hicks)
The number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Oregon will continue to decline steadily over the new year, according to the latest forecast updates from the Oregon University of Health and Sciences.
Hospitalizations will stay above 400 – below the previous peak last winter but above the peak in spring – for a few more weeks than they otherwise would have, as Oregonians tire of the behaviors known to prevent transmission. As the weather gets colder, it becomes more likely that people will congregate inside.
Despite this, forecasts predict that hospitalizations will drop to about 200 by the new year, well below the peak of 1,178 hospitalizations on September 1. A total of 730 people have been hospitalized in Oregon as of today, October 7. the latest figures provided by the Oregon Health Authority.
The updated forecast estimates that 23% of Oregonians currently remain susceptible to infection, which means they have not been vaccinated or recently infected. The new predictions take into account the decrease in immunity of those previously vaccinated or recently infected, offset by expectations of boosters among those eligible for the Pfizer mRNA booster.
Peter Graven, Ph.D. (OHSU)
“We will be monitoring to see if people receive reminders when they are recommended,” said Peter Graven, Ph.D., director of the Office of Advanced Analytics at OHSU. “While these rates remain high, the decline in immunity does not appear to have a significant impact on the hospital census.”
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