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The prevalence of the highly contagious delta variant means unvaccinated Ottawans will almost certainly come down with COVID-19 at some point, according to a modeling scientist.
The comments from Dr Doug Manuel, a senior scientist at The Ottawa Hospital who tracks local COVID-19 figures, come as recent daily case totals in Ottawa have reached new heights since late spring.
Public health officials reported 50 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, as well as the first death from the disease in two months.
The city’s test positivity rate stands at 3.5%, more than double what it was two weeks ago.
More than 90% of known active cases are in people under the age of 60, while the risk of COVID-19 infection is about 14 times higher for people who have not been vaccinated.
“Eventually we’ll all be exposed to COVID. It’s so contagious. The question is how quickly,” Manuel said in an interview with CBC News.
“People who are not vaccinated will be infected, whether it is this fall, this spring, next summer. It will happen. But if we can extend it, the health care system will not be overwhelmed.”
Hospitalizations could increase sharply
As of Friday, 81 percent of Ottawa residents aged 12 and older had been fully immunized, while 87 percent had received at least one injection.
Yet that leaves between 200,000 and 250,000 residents unvaccinated, Manuel said, and that means hospitals could still be overwhelmed if the number of cases suddenly spikes.
Even with vaccination rates on the order of 80%, hospitalization rates are still expected to peak at last year, Manuel said – although a few percentage points here and there could be the difference between the cancellation of elective surgeries and relaxation of restrictions.
Modeling released last week by the Ontario Scientific Advisory Table on COVID-19 suggested that more than 85% of the eligible population must be vaccinated to avoid a lockdown in the event of a fall.
“For a lot of models, we really have to [have vaccination rates] in the 90s… to avoid a lot of pressure this fall, ”Manuel said.
Wastewater remains constant
For now, local hospitalization rates remain low, with just six residents treated for COVID-19 at a local hospital on Friday and only one in intensive care.
Another “somewhat reassuring” factor, Manuel noted, is that COVID-19 levels in Ottawa’s wastewater have remained relatively constant, even as the number of daily cases is increasing.
Viral load in wastewater is now almost entirely made up of the delta variant, he added.
Manuel said modelers are also keeping a close eye on variants like mu, which has been dubbed the last variant of interest by the World Health Organization.
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