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Social distancing and other measures put in place due to the coronavirus pandemic will trigger a spike in flu cases next winter, a study warns.
So-called non-pharmaceutical interventions – behavioral changes that curb the spread of the disease – have been in place for much of 2020. They include wearing face masks and social distancing.
These measures have not only helped break the chain of transmission of Covid-19, but have also reduced infection rates for other diseases.
As a result, seasonal flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infected one-fifth fewer people in the United States in 2020 than in an average year, data shows, a.
However, the researchers warn that this apparent bonus will have an indirect impact in the years to come, as it increases the pool of sensitive people.
The number of people at risk will likely increase further, as masks and social distancing are expected to remain in place for several months due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
They will likely only be scrapped after a vaccine has been widely deployed and proven to work.
When that happens, potentially in the spring of 2021, other viruses will seize the abandonment of these measures, infecting the now swollen susceptible population.
As respiratory illnesses and viruses always thrive in the colder months, researchers expect the winter of 2021-2022 to be besieged by cases of the flu and RSV.
Scientists at Princeton University warn that it is likely that these future epidemics will “ increase the burden ” on health systems.
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The influenza data for Hawaii shows that when the non-pharmaceutical interventions took effect in March (vertical dotted line), the number of influenza cases (blue line) fell well below previous years (gray dots). This will lead to a flu spike in winter next year, experts say
The vertical dotted line shows when the COVID-19 pandemic erupted and the masks and social distancing began. Points are historical data for smoke levels from previous years. For Minnesota, the actual cases for 2020 (blue line) are well below normal rates. This will create a more vulnerable population in the future
While some diseases spread more easily than others, some are more dangerous, with a higher death rate, and some are very difficult to create a vaccine.
Seasonal flu, for example, changes rapidly via mutations, and as a result a vaccine is only partially effective, which means that a different vaccine must be made each year.
But the flu death rate is less than 0.1%, while the coronavirus is around 3%, making the flu much less deadly.
This is the main reason why Covid-19 has been so prevalent in society – it spreads slightly slower than the flu but is more likely to kill the people it infects.
Influenza also benefits from an element of herd immunity, where many people in a population are protected from re-infection because they, at some point, caught the virus and fought it off.
For this, they have developed their own protection and the antibodies can fight infection.
The annual influenza vaccine is given to vulnerable people whose immune systems may have difficulty in doing so, such as the elderly and pregnant women.
These charts show the forecast of RSV cases in Texas and Florida going forward. The blue dotted line represents the number of susceptible people. It points after the gray area, a period during which masks and social distancing are likely to be applied. The red line shows the previous (before 2020) or future number of people infected with RSV. It is expected to skyrocket in the winter of next year due to the larger vulnerable population. In Florida it could be four times the norm, and in Texas it could be twice the norm
Scientists have released the most up-to-date illustration of the coronavirus ever (pictured), mapping both its external appearance and internal structure
RSV is another virus that affects the respiratory system and is passed from person to person.
It is extremely common, and most children are infected by the age of two.
However, it can infect adults and older children as well, its symptoms manifesting in the same way as the common cold.
RSV can cause serious infection in some people, especially premature babies, older adults, infants and adults with heart and lung disease, or anyone with a very weak (immunocompromised) immune system.
Researchers at Princeton University used this year’s data on seasonal influenza and RSV infection rates and compared them to levels from previous years.
Since masks, social distancing and travel bans in the United States came into effect, transmission of RSV has fallen by 20%.
Due to the fact that people are less infected now, more people are likely to move forward.
“We are seeing that significant RSV outbreaks may occur in the coming years, with maximum outbreaks likely to occur in the winter of 2021-2022,” the researchers write.
“The flu results largely echo this picture, but are more uncertain; future epidemics probably depend on the transmissibility and the evolutionary dynamics of the circulating strains ”.
The full results are published in PNAS.
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