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A new forecast from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) predicts that deaths from COVID-19 will decline over the next month for the first time since June.
Released on Wednesday, the “ensemble” forecast combines 37 independent forecasts of coronavirus deaths over the next four weeks into one projection.
The CDC model predicts that weekly Covid deaths will drop to 5,300 by the week ending October 23.
This is a 62% drop from the current weekly total of 14,000 and a promising sign that the fourth wave is coming to an end as the United States is on the verge of eclipsing the 700 000 deaths.
It is also the first time since June 23 that forecasts predict that weekly deaths will decrease rather than increase.
Modelers have likely seen coronavirus cases plummet in America – by as much as 26% over the past month – and expect deaths to follow suit in the coming weeks.
A new CDC ensemble forecast projects the number of weekly deaths to drop to 5,300 by the week ending October 23, down from the current weekly total of 14,000
This is the first time since June 23 that forecasts predict a decrease in deaths rather than an increase. Pictured: Caskets are seen with corpses full of COVID-19 at Gerard J. Neufeld funeral home in Queens, New York, April 2020
On Wednesday, the United States recorded 2,531 virus-related deaths and a seven-day moving average of 2,080.
This is an increase of 56% from the 1,327 average deaths recorded a month ago.
The current death toll of 695,000 is higher than the number of Americans who died in World War I, World War II and the Vietnam War combined – and more than the annual number of cancers.
This figure is also higher than the number of lives lost in the United States to Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, the flu, pneumonia and stroke combined.
When the death toll reaches 700,000, that means more people in the United States will have died from COVID-19 than the number of people who live in Nashville or Washington, DC.
The death toll in the United States is the highest in the world, despite the country making up less than five percent of the world’s population.
However, the growth rate of new deaths has slowed in the past two weeks.
At the same time, two weeks ago, the average number of deaths had increased by 160% over a four-week period.
Experts say deaths are a lagging indicator and often don’t start to decline until three or four weeks after cases and hospitalizations, meaning deaths are also expected to drop soon.
Additionally, not all states report deaths from Covid every day, so it is likely that this figure includes deaths not reported earlier in the week.
The average number of deaths increased 56% in the past month, from 1,327 to 2,080, but the growth rate has slowed from 160% in a four-week period two weeks ago.
This comes from the fact that data from Johns Hopkins shows cases are down 26% to an average of 117,223 from the 160,157 average reported a month ago.
The CDC’s model isn’t the only forecast that predicts the number of deaths will decline.
Another analysis, conducted by the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which advises the CDC, was released last week and looked at different scenarios regarding the trajectory of the pandemic.
The researchers came up with four different scenarios depending on whether or not children aged five to 11 are allowed to be vaccinated and whether or not a new variant begins to spread.
The model does not argue for or against childhood vaccinations, but simply suggests that they will start by fall 2021.
BEST DEATH SCENARIO: Deaths are also expected to drop from 11,563 current weekly deaths, or 1,651 per day, to 415 weekly deaths, or approximately 59 per day (above)
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Another scenario, which predicts the emergence of a new infectious variant of Covid, would lead to a drop in weekly cases to 467,507, or 66,786 daily infections (above)
According to the model, this will lead to a drop in weekly deaths from COVID-19 to 415 weekly deaths, or about 59 per day.
These are numbers that haven’t been seen since late March 2020, when states began closing and implementing stay-at-home orders.
In the worst-case scenario, in which children are not approved for vaccination and a new 1.5 times more transmissible variant begins to circulate, cases and deaths would still decrease – but not by as much.
The model predicts that this scenario would cause weekly cases to drop to 467,507, or 66,786 daily infections, and 4,922 weekly deaths, or 703 daily deaths by next spring.
These numbers are similar to levels seen in the summer of 2020, in the middle of the second wave of the pandemic, and in April 2021, after the deadly third wave.
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