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The deployment of the COVID-19 vaccine has prevented hundreds of thousands of deaths from the disease in the United States, a new study suggests.
Researchers at the Yale School of Public Health (YSPH) ran simulations to determine what would have happened if no vaccine had been distributed until the summer of 2021.
The results showed that there were said to have been up to 279,000 additional deaths linked to COVID-19 and 1.25 million hospitalizations from the virus.
Since the start of the pandemic, more than 606,000 US deaths have been recorded, but the number of daily deaths has risen from an average of 4,000 deaths in early February 2021 in the winter push to 230 this month, by and large. part thanks to the vaccine.
But the team says that progress could be reversed as the vaccination campaign stalls in the United States and the Indian variant “Delta” continues to spread across the country, causing outbreaks in pockets of the United States with both high and low vaccination rates.
New study found that in the absence of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout in the United States, there would have been as many as 279,000 more deaths by this summer
If only half of the doses had been administered, there would have been over 457,000 additional hospitalizations (green) and, without the vaccine, there would have been 1.25 million additional hospitalizations (red)
“The vaccines have been remarkably successful in reducing the spread of the virus and saving hundreds of thousands of lives in the United States alone,” said lead author Dr Alison Galvani, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at YSPH, in a press release.
“Yet, until a greater majority of Americans are vaccinated, many more people could still die from this virus. The danger is not over. Now is not the time to let our guard down.
For the study, published by the private foundation The Commonwealth Fund, the team looked at the trajectory of the pandemic from October 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021.
They also looked at the data surrounding vaccinations and adjusted for the emergence of highly transmissible variants, including the Kent variant “Alpha”, the Brazilian variant “Gamma” and the Delta variant.
The Delta variant has since become the dominant strain in the United States, accounting for 51.7% of all new infections.
However, all three vaccines approved for emergency use authorization in the United States have been shown to be effective against the variants, including the Delta variant.
The model represented two hypothetical scenarios: one in which no COVID-19 vaccine was given and one in which half as many daily vaccines had been given by the summer of 2021.
As of Friday, 332 million doses had been distributed in the United States, with 55% of the population having received at least one dose, of which 67.4% were adults.
If only half of the doses had been administered, or approximately 166 million doses, as of July 1, there would have been approximately 121,000 additional deaths and over 457,000 additional hospitalizations.
In addition, the daily death rate is said to have exceeded the observed death rate, reaching just over 4,000 per day.
If only half of the COVID-19 vaccine doses had been administered, there would have been an estimated 121,000 additional deaths by the end of June 2021
The model found that no COVID-19 vaccine would likely have caused a spring wave with 4,500 deaths per day, higher than during the winter wave
Next, the researchers looked at the number of deaths and hospitalizations that would have occurred in the United States without a vaccination program.
The model determined that, without the vaccine, there would have been up to 279,000 more deaths by the end of June of this year.
Researchers also found that there would have been a spring surge this year with a potential 4,500 deaths per day, more than the 4,000 deaths per day recorded in February.
In addition, there have been 1.2 million hospitalizations, in addition to the approximately 1.5 million hospitalizations recorded since the start of the vaccine deployment.
“Our results demonstrate the extraordinary impact of rapidly vaccinating a large part of the population to prevent hospitalizations and death,” the authors wrote.
“The speed of the vaccination appears to have prevented another potential wave of the US pandemic in April that might otherwise have been triggered by the Alpha and Gamma variants.
“Additional new variants such as Delta will pose a particular threat to unvaccinated populations in the months to come.
“A renewed commitment to expanding access to vaccines will be crucial to achieving the higher immunization levels needed to control the pandemic and prevent preventable suffering, especially for people in historically underserved groups and in areas of the United States to low vaccination rate. “
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