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The researchers compared the actual trends in Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths to a modeled trajectory of what those trends would have been had there been no vaccinations.
At the end of June, researchers estimate there would have been around 279,000 additional deaths from Covid-19 – around 46% more than there were – and up to 1.25 million additional hospitalizations. ‘there had been no vaccination. And if vaccinations had progressed at half their rate, an additional 121,000 people might have died and more than 450,000 more would have been hospitalized.
In a briefing Thursday, White House Covid-19 response director Jeff Zients called the new research a “powerful reminder of the stakes in our vaccination efforts.”
“This is further proof that our whole-of-government strategy is working and has prevented further major tragedies and disruptions in the lives and livelihoods of Americans,” he said.
The researchers’ model took into account factors such as the prevalence and transmissibility of new variants, vaccine efficacy rates, mobility patterns resulting in daily contact, and age-specific risks of serious health problems. due to Covid-19.
Most of the additional deaths are believed to have occurred due to an “increase and spread of the more transmissible Alpha variant,” according to the researchers. The Alpha variant – also known as B.1.1.7 and first identified in the UK – became the dominant strain in the US in the spring. Without vaccinations, researchers estimate there could have been a spring surge with nearly 4,500 deaths per day, even more than the January peak of around 3,400 daily deaths.
The researchers compared their model to actual trends between mid-December 2020 – when vaccinations started in the United States – and the end of June 2021. However, the model was simulated using data up to October 2020 to balance lower incidence rates compared to the winter surge.
Nearly 48% of the U.S. population – about 156 million people – is fully vaccinated, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Over the past week, an average of about 432,000 people have been fully immunized each day, down about 76% from the record rate of nearly 1.8 million people per day in mid-April.
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