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New Delhi, August 24
Covid-19 in India could enter a kind of endemic stage where there is a low or moderate level of transmission, World Health Organization chief scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan said.
The endemic stage is when a population learns to live with a virus. It is very different from the epidemic stage where the virus overwhelms a population.
When approving Covaxin, she said that she was quite confident that the WHO technical group would be happy to give the clearance for Covaxin to be one of its licensed vaccines and this could happen d ‘by mid-September.
In an interview with reporter Karan Thapar for news site The Wire, Swaminathan said that given India’s size and the heterogeneity of the population and immune status in different parts of the country, it is “very very possible “that the situation could continue like this with ups and downs in various parts of the nation.
“We may be entering a kind of endemic stage where there is low level transmission or moderate level transmission going on, but we are not seeing the types of exponential growth and peaks that we have seen there. a few months ago, ”Swaminathan said.
“As far as India is concerned this seems to be what is happening and due to the size of India and the heterogeneity of the population and immune status in different parts of the country in different pockets it is very possible for the situation to continue like this with ups and downs in different parts of the country, especially where there is a more sensitive population, so the groups that may have been less affected by the first and second waves or areas with low levels of vaccine coverage could experience peaks and troughs over the next few months, “she said.
She said she hoped that by the end of 2022 “we would be in the position of having achieved vaccination coverage, say 70%, and then countries can get back to normal.”
On the prevalence of Covid in children, Swaminathan said parents don’t need to panic.
“We can learn from the serological survey and what we have learned from other countries that while it is possible for children to be infected and transmitted, the children fortunately have a very mild illness most of the time and there is a small percentage who get sick and contract inflammatory complications and few will die but much less than the adult population … But it’s good to prepare … prepare hospitals for pediatric admissions, pediatric intensive care will serve our system of health in many ways for other illnesses that children have but we should not panic about the thousands of children crammed into intensive care units, ”she said.
Regarding the use of drugs like Remdesivir, HCQ or Ivermectin for treatment, she said at the moment, there is no evidence that HCQ or Ivermectin have a role to play in reducing blood loss. mortality or morbidity in persons infected with the virus or in the prevention of infection. , therefore, there is no reason why recommendations can be made regarding the use of either drug for treatment or prevention.
“The solidarity trial showed that Remdesivir does not reduce mortality, it may have a marginal benefit in a subgroup of patients who are sick enough to need oxygen but not enough to be ventilated, it may so there is a marginal benefit, but Remdesivir certainly does not do much in moderately or severely ill patients. It is also very expensive. Medicines like dexamethasone and oxygen are the two essentials that save lives, ”she added.
When clearing Covaxin, she said the decision could be made, hopefully, by mid-September.
“Bharat Biotech submitted their data during the third week of July which was the first dataset, and then an updated dataset was provided in mid-August. The committee returned to the business with a few questions which they must be answering now. I think the technical advisory group that will ultimately approve will meet in the first 10 days of September and so hopefully that will happen soon after, ”she said.
“So in mid-September I think, and the reason it took longer was because of the back and forth and the need for more data being requested from the company and that’s the usual process. People think it takes longer for Covaxin than it does for others but it isn’t … she said.
During the third wave, she said that no one had a “crystal ball” and that it was impossible to predict a third wave.
“It will be impossible to predict when, where the third wave will be upon us and whether a third wave will arrive. However, you can make an educated guess about some of the variables that impact transmission, ”she said.
On the booster doses, she said there were both scientific and moral and ethical reasons not to rush into the booster shots.
“… so it would also be in the interest of countries that have excess doses now to send those doses through Covax to countries that desperately need them,” she said.
Regarding the concept of the vaccine passport, she said: “We don’t think vaccination should be a prerequisite at least globally to do things like travel because we haven’t given everyone the opportunity to. get vaccinated, there are so many inequalities of access. to vaccines, so the first thing is to get rid of the inequality, then you can allow the vaccinated people to relax some measures. Vaccine passports are intended to allow international travel for people fully vaccinated against the coronavirus. PTI
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