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BEIJING (AP) – A joint study by the World Health Organization and China on the origins of COVID-19 indicates that transmission of the virus from bats to humans by another animal is the most likely scenario probable and that a lab leak is “extremely unlikely,” according to a draft copy obtained by The Associated Press.
The results offer little new information on how the virus first appeared and leave many questions unanswered, even though it was as expected. But the report provides more details on the reasoning behind the researchers’ conclusions.
The team offered additional research in all areas except the lab leak hypothesis – a speculative theory that was promoted by former US President Donald Trump among others. He also said the role played by a seafood market where human cases were first identified was uncertain.
The report, which is expected to be released on Tuesday, is being watched closely as discovering the virus’s origins could help scientists prevent future pandemics – but it is also extremely sensitive as China bristles at any suggestion it is at to blame for the current pandemic. .
Matthew Kavanagh of Georgetown University said the report deepens understanding of the origins of the virus, but more information is needed.
“It is clear that the Chinese government has not provided all the necessary data and, until it does, firmer conclusions will be difficult,” he said in a statement.
Last year, a PA investigation found that the Chinese government strictly controlled all research into his origins.. And the repeated delays in releasing the report have raised the question of whether the Chinese side is trying to skew its conclusions.
“We have real concerns about the methodology and process that followed this report, including the fact that the Beijing government apparently helped write it,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a recent report. interview with CNN.
China dismissed the criticism on Monday.
“The United States has spoken on the report. By doing this, isn’t the United States trying to exert political pressure on the members of the WHO expert group? Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian asked.
Yet China’s suspicion has helped fuel the theory that the virus escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the virus was first identified. The report cited several reasons for anything but rejecting this possibility.
He said such lab accidents are rare and Wuhan labs working on coronaviruses and vaccines are well managed. He also noted that there were no records of viruses closely related to the coronavirus in any laboratory until December 2019 and that the risk of accidental growth of the virus was extremely low.
The report is largely based on a visit by a team of international WHO experts to Wuhan. The mission was never designed to identify the exact natural source of the virus, an endeavor that typically takes years. For example, more than 40 years of studies have still failed to identify the exact species of bats that are the natural reservoir for Ebola.
In the project obtained by the AP, the researchers listed four scenarios in order of probability of emergence of the new coronavirus. Topping the list was the transmission of bats from another animal, which they said was very likely. They assessed the likelihood of direct spread from bats to humans, and said spread to humans from “cold chain” food packaging was possible, but unlikely.
The latter possibility had previously been ruled out by the WHO and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, but the mission’s researchers took it up, still raising questions about the politicization of the study as China has long pushed the theory.
Bats are known to be carriers of coronavirus and, in fact, the closest relative of the virus that causes COVID-19 has been found in bats. However, the report states that “the evolutionary distance between these bat viruses and (COVID-19) is estimated to be several decades, which suggests a missing link.”
He said very similar viruses have been found in pangolins, which are another type of mammal, but scientists have yet to identify the same coronavirus in animals that has infected humans.
The PA received the draft copy on Monday from a Geneva-based diplomat from a WHO member country. It was not clear if the report could still be edited before it was released, although the diplomat said it was the final version. A second diplomat also confirmed receiving the report. The two declined to be identified because they were not authorized to publish it prior to its publication.
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus admitted he received the report over the weekend and said it would be officially presented on Tuesday.
“All the hypotheses are on the table and justify full and additional studies from what I have seen so far,” he said at a press conference.
The report cannot determine whether the outbreak started in a Wuhan seafood market that had one of the first clusters of cases in December 2019. Research published last year in the journal Lancet suggested that the market would simply have served to further spread the disease rather than being its source.
The market was one of the first suspects as some stalls sold a range of unusual animals – and some wondered if they had brought the new virus to Wuhan. The report noted that animal products – including everything from bamboo rats to deer, often frozen – were sold in the market, as were live crocodiles.
As the virus spread around the world, China found samples of it on packages of frozen food entering the country and in some cases tracked localized outbreaks – but has never released convincing data for prove this link.
The report says the cold chain, as it is known, may be a driver of long-range spread of the virus, although the risk is lower than from human-to-human spread. Most experts agree with this.
While it is possible that packaging contaminated with an infected animal was subsequently brought to Wuhan and infected humans, the report says the likelihood is very low.
“Although there is evidence of a possible reintroduction of (COVID-19) through the handling of contaminated frozen products imported into China since the initial pandemic wave, it would be extraordinary in 2019 when the virus was not circulating widely,” said study.
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Keaten reported from Geneva. Associated Press writers Maria Cheng in London, Victoria Milko in Jakarta, Indonesia, and Frank Jordans in Berlin contributed. The PA Department of Health and Science receives support from the Department of Science Education at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
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