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For the second day in a row, California Governor Newsom was asked on Tuesday whether the state’s mask mandate returned. At first, Newsom dodged, as he did on Monday with, “We’ll see. Ultimately, the epidemiology on the variants will make this determination. Newsom also said that July figures show the Delta variant is present in more than 60% of the state’s genomically sequenced Covid tests. Nationally, it’s 83%.
Then the governor added that if more people get vaccinated, masks would not be needed. “The message is,” he stressed, “get yourself vaccinated… this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated.”
Pressed again if there is a Covid-19 data point that would push the state to implement restrictions, Newsom said: “We are not considering taking physical distances or shutting down anything.”
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“The answer to the Delta variant is vaccination,” Newsom said. “We don’t need masks. Just get vaccinated.
But the governor, who faces a recall election in September, could engage in some magical reflection. After all, California’s largest county, Los Angeles, started imposing masks on everyone indoors in public again last week. We are joined by counties representing the majority of the state’s population.
The state on Tuesday recorded its highest number of cases since mid-February, at 4,700. A more reliable data point, the number of cases per 100,000 people, had risen to 7.2. That’s more than triple what it was when Newsom reopened the state on June 15. By its own Plan level system for a safer economy, which before June 15 limited trade capacity and required masking in various situations, would put the state in the “substantial” category. Newsom could argue that those requirements have been relaxed as more people get vaccinated – and the state now has nearly 21 million fully vaccinated residents.
But while the vaccines are clearly effective against Covid, they are less effective against the more virulent Delta variant. California on Tuesday recorded its highest 7-day test positivity rate since mid-February, when only about 2 million residents were vaccinated. Something is brewing, despite the state’s immunization progress.
Even now, only about half of its 40 million people are fully immunized. And about 15% of the Californian population is not eligible for vaccines because they are under 12 years old. This leaves 35% of the population who, for one reason or another, have not been vaccinated. Newsom is hoping that after warnings, pleading and even a lottery, these people will decide it’s time to get the vaccine.
But the state’s daily immunization rate has dropped dramatically. It went from a peak of around 500,000 doses per day in April, according to the Los Angeles Timesaccording to the state, that’s the current average of 61,000 per day. Tuesday’s actual daily total is likely below that average as the numbers are dropping.
The vast majority of California vaccines are now administered in two doses. So let’s say 30,000 people are fully vaccinated every day in California. At this rate, it will take another 100-200 days for the state to achieve the 70-85% inoculation which infectious disease experts say constitutes herd immunity. Those who have had the virus also have some immunity, but it is said to be less than that of those who have been vaccinated. And with the more transmissible Delta variant now dominant in the state, Californians need all the protection they can get.
Statewide infections have increased over the past month as quickly, if not faster, than some jumps that prompted the governor to tighten California restrictions, according to a review of health data from the State by the Sacramento Bee.
While the rates are even lower, the recent infection curve is more than twice as steep as in the weeks leading up to either of last year’s shutdowns, and the hospitalization graph compares to them. , according to a survey conducted by The Sacramento Bee.
The state’s average 7-day test positivity rate, a confidence measure that is unaffected by testing rates and is an average, fell from 1% to 4.2% in four weeks. This kind of increase is not sustainable, especially since the nature of the viral spread is that once the rate of infection has taken off, it is very difficult to stop its continued rise.
As of Tuesday, 19 counties, including Riverside, San Diego, Sacramento, El Dorado and Contra Costa, had a current test positivity rate above 5%, according to state data. Positivity is highest in Lake County (12.8%), Yuba (9.8%), Humboldt (8.5%), Sutter (7%) and Mendocino (6.4%). Even in the rest of the state, the spread of Covid is under control, these counties can serve as incubators for infection and, potentially, new variants. Doubly if they are also lagging behind in vaccinations.
The seven counties with the highest recent positivity rates, according to state figures, are all below the region’s average in terms of vaccination. Virus experts have warned of such pockets of infection which, while the rest of the state looks fine, can harbor epidemics and foster new variants.
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