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A reveler during last year’s Mardi Gras celebration may have been the catalyst for 50,000 coronavirus cases, according to a new study.
It is well known that the 2020 carnival celebration in Louisiana at the end of February made the state one of the first pandemic hotspots in the United States.
But researchers now believe that one person likely brought the virus to the city in the weeks leading up to Shrove Tuesday and spawned tens of thousands of infections as a result of people crowding together and sharing food and drink without a mask.
They suspect Mardi Gras “ patient zero ” infected 800 people in the two weeks between February 13 and the conclusion of the Ash Wednesday festivities on February 26.
And those 800 people then spread the infection to another 50,000 people in Louisiana and neighboring states.
The team – which consisted of several institutions, including the Scripps Research Institute, Tulane University and Louisiana State University Health Shreveport – said the outbreak has gone largely undetected due to a lack of efforts to test and mitigation in place at the time.
A new study has determined that only one person, likely from Texas, introduced COVID-19 to New Orleans for Carnival 2020. Pictured: The risk of the virus spreading in the United States in the first week after Mardi Gras
By Mardi Gras and Ash Wednesday, nearly 800 people were likely infected and led to 50,000 cases in Louisiana’s first wave. Pictured: Percentage of people who traveled from other states to New Orleans before Mardi Gras 2020
There was little genetic variety in the samples found in New Orleans, which created conditions similar to a cruise ship in which an outbreak came from a single source. Pictured: Bourbon Street in New Orleans on Mardi Gras Day in February 2020
Studies subsequently showed COVID-19 exposure rates to be close to 10% in Louisiana’s first wave from March 9 to May 15. Pictured: The Society of St. Anne’s parade during Mardi Gras in New Orleans, February 2020
“At the time, there were no precautions. Nobody thought about that, ” study co-author Mark Zeller, researcher at Scripps, told DailyMail.com.
“ No one was wearing a mask, no one was taking a social distance, just partying like the year before.
“But the problem was, the virus was already there. The virus was probably introduced before Mardi Gras and has just started, and has increased transmission dramatically like a snowball.
For the study, which has not yet been peer reviewed and posted on the medRxiv.org preprint server, the team sequenced the genomes of the Nova Scotia virus. Orleans and other places in Louisiana during the first wave, March 9 to May 15. .
These were then compared to genomes from the United States and around the world to identify the emergence of COVID-19 in Bayou State.
There was little genetic variety in the sample found in New Orleans, which created conditions similar to a cruise ship in which an outbreak originated from a single source.
Infections have spread to other states, such as Texas, Mississippi and Alabama, but stay-at-home orders have kept the virus from spreading much further (above)
“I think there are a lot of people in a relatively small space, that’s a fair comparison,” Zeller said.
“ Obviously the Mardi Gras scale is fine, much bigger, but it was a very widespread event, which basically happens like a cruise ship.
“An infected person arrives and the virus begins to bounce off the ship. Think of Louisiana as a big ship, where the virus entered and was just dramatically amplified by Mardi Gras
They also looked at mobility data to determine who was traveling to and from New Orleans during Carnival.
Between February 14, 2020, the start of the celebration, and February 25, Mardi Gras day, more than one American visited the city.
The first case of COVID-19 in Louisiana was reported on March 9. Unlike the early outbreaks in New York and Washington, researchers determined that Patient Zero was not from Europe or Asia but from someone traveling within the country.
Analysis determined that the sick person was likely from Texas, which was more than twice as likely as the next most likely state to be the source.
Indeed, in February 2020, passengers from Texas accounted for 13% of trips to New Orleans and 35% of trips to Shreveport, a city in northwest Louisiana.
About 800 people were infected the next day, Ash Wednesday, which then spread the virus to others and led to around 50,000 confirmed cases, mainly in Louisiana during the first wave over the next few months.
“ The rapid nature of the early COVID-19 outbreak in New Orleans has likely resulted in thousands of additional cases, which is supported by seroprevalence studies showing exposure rates of nearly ten percent d ‘here May 15, 2020 in New Orleans,’ the authors wrote.
‘Compared to neighboring states that did not experience the same explosive first waves as Louisiana, the CDC … estimated that seroprevalence in Louisiana was 35 to 134% higher than in other states in the southern states. -United.
And although the New Orleans strain led to infections in other parts of Louisiana and other southern states, including Texas, Mississippi, and Alabama, stay-at-home orders seemed to help. the virus to spread to other states.
This year, New Orleans is closing bars from February 12 to 17, and no establishments will be allowed to sell take-out alcoholic beverages. Pictured: A group of revelers on a balcony toss pearls at the crowd below on Bourbon Street on Mardi Gras Day in February 2020
It was sort of a perfect storm. Very few people in the United States were aware of the epidemic that was on the verge of becoming so theveryone was still behaving normally, ”Zeller said.
“ If Mardi Gras had arrived three weeks before, the virus would not have been there or the amplification would have been much lower.
‘This also works on other far, so if Mardi Gras was a month later, eeveryone would have known about the virus and it would have been canceled. It was just an unfortunate moment of the event.
This year, Mardi Gras and Carnival will be very different.
Bars will be closed from February 12 to 17, and no establishment, such as restaurants, will be allowed to sell take-out alcoholic beverages.
Pedestrians and vehicles will not be allowed on some of the city’s most popular streets from 7 p.m. to 3 a.m. and there will also be no parking zones in effect.
Indoor gatherings will be limited to a maximum of 10 people and outdoor gatherings to a maximum of 25 guests.
“Vaccinations are increasing, but only a very small percentage of the population is vaccinated now,” Zeller said.
“We should still behave for a few more months. As soon as we stop wearing face masks, stop social distancing, the virus will reappear and spread again.
“People shouldn’t be having parties… I know everyone is tired of the situation, but now is not the right time to start partying.”
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