COVID Vaccine Stock Update: Where Do You Stand?

Don’t blink: The dynamics of the coronavirus vaccine race are changing so quickly that you might be missing out. The potential fortunes depend on what happens.

There are 48 COVID-19 vaccines currently in clinical testing, according to the World Health Organization. However, not all are potential candidates for reaching the US market. Several of the experimental vaccines are being developed by companies whose shares are not listed on the stock exchange.

There are plenty of stocks from coronavirus vaccine makers to watch out for. Here is an update on the current status of major stocks of COVID vaccines.

Upcoming authorization decisions

There are two clear leaders in the coronavirus vaccine race. Both are awaiting emergency use authorization (EUA) decisions from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Pfizerof (NYSE: PFE) and BioNTechof (NASDAQ: BNTX) BNT162b2 is already shipping, although the EUA is still pending. Doses of the vaccine are flown from Pfizer’s Belgium manufacturing plant to Chicago and from there to distribution centers across the U.S. The plan is to have vaccine doses ready for delivery to administration sites as quickly as possible after the FDA has made its decision.

This decision is fast approaching. The FDA calls an advisory committee meeting on December 10 to review the EUA’s filing for BNT162b2. The agency is expected to announce whether or not Pfizer’s vaccine will receive EUA soon after.

Modern (NASDAQ: ARNM) will not be far behind. Biotechnology filed an EUA application for mRNA-1273 on November 30 after reporting earlier today that the investigational vaccine was 100% effective in preventing severe cases of COVID-19. An FDA advisory committee is due to meet to review Moderna’s EUA filing on December 17.

Based on the efficacy and safety data announced so far, the odds of getting a boost look good for both vaccines.

The second wave

Three more COVID-19 vaccines could potentially be destined for the EUA in the first half of 2021. AstraZeneca (NASDAQ: AZN) is the only company in this group to report interim efficacy results from an advanced stage study so far. The large drugmaker reported an average intermediate efficacy of 70% for AZD1222. The details behind AstraZeneca’s interim results were intriguing.

AstraZeneca gave some participants in its advanced study a half dose of AZD1222 followed by a full dose at least one month later. This group has achieved 90% efficiency. However, this group was much smaller than the group that received a full dose of AZD1222 followed by a full dose booster at least one month later. This larger group had a much lower efficiency of 62%.

As AstraZeneca prepares to file for early approval in some countries based on these results, it will likely not yet be able to submit to the EUA. Why? The reported results do not come from the company’s US study on AZD1222. Additionally, AstraZeneca did not initially include a combined half-dose and full-dose regimen in its US study, but plans to do so now.

Johnson & johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is currently conducting two advanced global clinical trials of its COVID-19 vaccine candidate JNJ-78436735 – one with a single-dose schedule and the other with a two-dose schedule. Like AstraZeneca’s AZD1222, J & J’s vaccine uses a non-replicating adenovirus to insert DNA into cells. This DNA contains instructions to produce a protein identical to the spike protein on the surface of the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

It is too early to know how effective J & J’s experimental vaccine will be. The health giant has not provided a specific date for the availability of interim efficacy results, but in early 2021 it seems likely.

Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) is another company with an advanced COVID-19 vaccine candidate that investors will want to watch out for. Biotechnology expects to announce interim results from a British advanced study of its vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, early next year. Novavax had hoped to start an advanced stage study in the United States by the end of November, but recently reported a delay in resolving manufacturing issues with the FDA. The company now plans to launch an advanced stage study of NVX-CoV2373 in the United States and Mexico in the coming weeks.

Next step, late step

Three COVID-19 vaccine candidates are currently in phase 2. Two are in development by Chinese drug makers and are unlikely to enter the United States or major European markets. CureVac (NASDAQ: CVAC), however, has already signed an agreement with the European Union to provide at least 225 million doses of its COVID-19 CVnCoV vaccine.

Like BNT162b2 from Pfizer and BioNTech and mRNA1273 from Moderna, CVnCoV uses messenger RNA (mRNA) to direct cells to produce proteins identical to the spike protein found on the surface of SARS-CoV-2. . CureVac plans to begin a pivotal Phase 2b / 3 study of CVnCoV soon, pending regulatory approval. If all goes as planned, an interim analysis could be conducted in the first quarter of 2021.

Several likely winners

Even though Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna are the leaders right now, don’t look for a win-win scenario with COVID-19 vaccines. Several winners are very likely.

Among the big pharmaceutical stocks, Pfizer seems to be the biggest winner, at least initially. AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson have pledged to make their coronavirus vaccines available at cost during the pandemic; Pfizer did not. However, J&J could have a competitive advantage with its single dose vaccine if it is proven to be safe and highly effective.

When it comes to relatively small biotech stocks, Novavax appears to have the most advantages. It is by far the smallest of the major manufacturers of COVID vaccines, with a market capitalization of less than $ 10 billion. However, Novavax has still not published any intermediate efficacy results. If NVX-CoV2373 does not provide efficacy of the order of 90% or more, Novavax may be discontinued.

The coming weeks and months could bring significant upheaval in the COVID-19 vaccine landscape. Stay tuned.