COVID will finally be “under control” by March, virus expert says

For the past year and a half, the pandemic has created a deep sense of uncertainty as the threat of COVID has taken a heavy toll on daily life. Even a brief respite that saw cases drop steadily in the spring was shortlived as the Delta variant returned the numbers throughout the summer. But now a virus expert says the days of the pandemic may be numbered and COVID will finally be “under control” in a matter of months. Read on to see when we can finally put the virus behind us.

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In their latest round of projections, COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub researchers used mathematical models from nine different research groups to develop a set of four forecasts for the next six months, NPR reports. Each included various events that could determine how the virus would spread, including whether children would become eligible for vaccination or if another highly contagious variant were to emerge.

The pattern the researchers plotted as the most likely scenario, involving vaccinations for children and sparing the public another easily propagated variant, showed a steady decline throughout the winter without any significant spikes. After evaluating the model, Guillaume Hanage, an epidemiologist at Harvard’s TH Chan School of Public Health, warned that while there could be a number of bumps in the road, he was cautiously optimistic that the Delta push was in its final phase and that the pandemic would be “comparatively under control by March.”

The current numbers are projected to continue to decline through the fall and winter, according to the projection. The model expects the September 11 rate of 146,790 new cases per day to drop to 9,055 by March 12. COVID-related deaths are expected to follow, dropping from a rate of 1,666 per day to 59 on the same date.

“Those of us who have been following this closely, given what has happened with Delta, are going to be very cautious of being overly optimistic,” he added. Justin lessler, PhD, a University of North Carolina epidemiologist who helps run the modeling center, told NPR. “But I think the trajectory is towards improvement for most of the country,” he said.

But Lessler warns that while the most likely scenario pattern presents a relatively optimistic outlook, it is far from certain that it will play out. Another of the models that takes into account a contagious new variant hitting the United States predicts that cases could reach 232,000 per day before dropping to around 50,000 in March. “We have to be careful because the virus has shown us time and time again that new variants or people slacking off on their caution can turn things around,” Lessler told NPR.

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While Hanage sees very real potential for COVID to be brought under control by spring, he also warns that history tells us we may be in store for another wave of the virus. He points out that the peaks of the pandemic were reached during the winter when colder weather forced more people inside. “If you look at the seasonal dynamics of coronaviruses, they usually peak in early January. And in fact, last year we saw a peak like this with SARS-CoV-2,” he told NPR.

Lessler and Hanage also expressed concern that the numbers should not mislead anyone into believing that some states would not continue to see increases. Lessler specifically cited Pennsylvania and some western states such as Utah and Idaho as being at risk for spikes in cases, while Hanage said states would have colder winters could also see infections increase. . “I would be worried if I interpreted them too optimistically for the country as a whole,” Hanage warned.

However, Lessler points out that this winter has the benefit of widely available and highly effective vaccines and more people who have been exposed to the virus. While infection rates are still high and precautions are still needed, he argues conditions are better than they were around this time last year. “The main driver is immunity,” he told NPR. “We’ve seen really big Delta waves. The virus has eaten up susceptible people. So there are fewer people to infect.”

Even though the Delta variant wave is showing signs of slowing down, other experts have given similar predictions about when the pandemic will really start to slow down. According to Celine Gounder, MD, epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist at Bellevue Hospital Center in New York City, it probably won’t be until next year, recounting The New York Times: “I don’t think we’re really going to get over it until next spring.”

Gounder added that while they won’t be as bad as they were last year, we will most likely see another round of flare-ups during major holidays such as Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years as people congregate in inside. She also points out that returning students to class offers a new way to spread the virus that was not seen in previous phases of the pandemic.

“A lot of schools across the country just aren’t taking it very seriously this year,” Gounder said. The temperature. “So you will see the transmission from schools to the community. “

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